November 16, 2018

Traders Turn Attention to USDA

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for June 9, 2017.

Grain markets are lower ahead of this morning's USDA Supply and Demand report. Outside markets are debating the ramifications of the UK election, and the possible interest rate hike following next week's FOMC meeting.

Average estimates for today's USDA Supply and Demand report has 2016/17 corn ending stocks at2.287 billion bushels, soybeans at .433, and wheat at 1.161. 2017/18 corn stocks are estimated at 2.085 billion bushels, soybeans at .485, and wheat at .911.

South American production is estimated to show Argentina corn at 40.29 million tonnes, and soybeans at 57.40. Brazil's corn crop is estimated to be 96.48 million tonnes, while soybeans are estimated at 112.24. The report will be out at 11:00 AM CDT, and we expect attention to quickly turn back to rain forecasts after its release.

Weekly exports sales from May 25 to June 1 were released yesterday morning. Corn exports sales totaled 476,565 tonnes (348,595 old crop). This was under the 600,000 - 950,000 trade expectation.

Soybean export sales of 380,934 tonnes were also reported (159,134 old crop). That was under the 350,000 - 750,000 trade estimate. Current sales total 2.153 billion bushels as of June 1. USDA's whole year estimate on last month's Supply and Demand report was 2.050.

The old crop wheat marketing year is over as of May 31. We had shipments of 974 million bushels for the weekly version of export sales. With a likely 56 million addition including a few donations the likely whole-marketing year export totaled 1.030 billion bushels. USDA's goal back in May was 1.035.

Agroconsult has revised their forecast for Brazil's second crop corn from 67 million tonnes to 68.8 million tonnes on good rains in Mato Grosso.

China's General Administration of Customs reported May soybean imports at a record 9.59 million tonnes. This is a record for any previous month in history, not just for previous Mays, and was 25% over last year.

The Climate Prediction Center suggested there will be no El Nino conditions for the Northern Hemisphere through the fall in their most recent forecast.

Managed Money Funds were estimated buyers across the board yesterday of 15,000 corn contracts, 8,000 soybeans, 5,500 wheat, 2,000 soymeal, and 4,000 soyoil.

Yesterday's UK election resulted in a hung parliament with no party having a clear majority. This only adds to the questions surrounding Brexit, and is giving the US Dollar a lift.

Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference Series – July 25th, 26th and 27th, 2017

Weather Outlook - July 25th 2:00 PM CST, Drew Lerner of World Weather, Inc. will share his forecast for the remainder of this growing season and into harvest.

Grains & Oilseeds - July 26th 2:00 PM CST, Is it time to change your hedge strategy, or should you stick to your plan?

Livestock - July 27th 2:00 PM CST, Our livestock outlooks will address the big fundamental questions that the livestock markets are currently facing.

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Fed Cattle Exchange had technical problems again yesterday just after the auction began. However, limited numbers of cattle were moved at $136.50 and $137, over last week's $132.25 and $132.50 for the FCE.

Cattle export sales in the previous four weeks ran from 7,146 to 12,051 metric tonnes. Totaled together, it was 29% under last year for that period. Yesterday's export number rebounded to 13,821 tonnes, 10% over last year.

Pork export sales in the latest week were good at 22,629 tonnes. That was the best sale in six weeks. This week's number was 35% over last year.

Dressed beef values were mixed with choice down .32 and select up .11. The CME Feeder Index is 154.11. Pork cutout value is up 1.48.

Markets At-A-Glance – 5:00 AM

  • Jul Corn    -3 3/4
  • Jul Beans   -2/3/4
  • Jul Wheat   -5
  • Jul Soymeal -.50
  • Jul Soy oil -.14
  • Jun Dlr     +.47
  • Jun S&P     +4.00
  • Jul Crude   +.23
  • Jun Gold    -3.00

Technical Chart of the Day

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