August 19, 2018

All Eyes on Trade

August 17th, 2018

Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for August 17, 2018.

Grain markets found the new news they were looking for byway of trade headlines that most view as supportive. While outside markets are also encouraged by the trade talks, they will also look to this morning's Michigan Consumer Sentiment report at 9:00 AM.

Allendale’s Annual Yield Survey will begin Monday morning and run through the end of the month. We will release the results on September 5 in a live webinar (Register Here). Watch your email to share the results of your farm or call us at 800-262-7538.

Weekly Export Sales for the week ending August 9th reported good old crop/new crop wheat sales of 803,000 tonnes, well above the trade estimate of 200,000 to 500,000 tonnes. Corn sales were reported at 1,379,000 tonnes within the estimate of 600,000 to 1,600,000 tonnes. Soybean sales came in at 705,000 tonnes, also within the range of trader estimates of 400,000 to 1,100,000.

Updated NOAA maps for the month of September show a good harvest outlook for Midwest. Add this to a crop that is maturing quickly and harvest-time does not look to provide any weather surprises to the market.

Renewable fuel blending credits were up in July vs. June according to data released by the EPA. 1.37 billion ethanol blending credits were generated in July, compared to 1.26 billion in June. Biodiesel blending credits were a bit lower at 310 million vs. June's 318 million.

ProFarmer will begin their crop tour on Monday. The media coverage should give a first hand look at crop conditions throughout the cornbelt.

A potential ban on the popular herbicide glyphosate in Brazil would be a "disaster" for the country's agriculture, and a court case that has targeted the agrochemical is worrying, Agriculture Minister Blairo Maggi said on Thursday. A Brazilian court ruling on Aug. 3 said the registration of existing glyphosate-based products in the country would be temporarily suspended starting from September, until health authority Anvisa issues a decision on its reevaluation of the agrochemical's safety. (Reuters)

Managed money funds were buyers in yesterday's trade fueled rally. Estimates are that they bought 14,000 corn, 20,000 soybeans, 4,000 wheat, 5,000 soymeal, and 2,000 soyoil contracts.

China's Vice Minister of Commerce, Wang Shouwen visit the US later this month to restart talks on the US/Chinese trade war according to China's Ministry of Commerce. Some in trade view the fact that China is sending a lower-level delegate to the talks indicates they might not be serious about the discussions.

Robert Lighthizer, the US Trade Representative, said he hopes there will be a breakthrough in the ongoing NAFTA renegotiations in the next few days. However, Mexican trade officials recently stated that they may not meet their end of August goal to conclude the talks.

Beef export sales 21,500 tonnes for 2018 and 500 tonnes for 2019 were reported by USDA yesterday. Pork sales of 26,700 tonnes for 2018 were also reported.

China found its second case of African swine fever (ASF) on Thursday at a slaughterhouse owned by WH Group Ltd's Chinese unit, stirring concerns about the spread of the deadly infection across the world's largest pig herd. (Reuters)

Dressed beef values were mixed with choice up .85 and select down .85. The CME Feeder Index is 150.29. Pork cutout value is down .86.

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