March 19, 2018

Feb 2018 USDA Supply & Demand

February 8th, 2018


US Ending Stocks (17/18 in million bushels)
USDA Jan 18 Avg Estimate USDA Feb 18
Corn 2,477 2,468 2,352
Soybeans 470 486 530
Wheat 989 990 1,009

Each month USDA updates various estimates of supply and demand and revises its moving target for where stocks will end at the end of the marketing year, August 31 for corn and soybeans and May 31 for wheat. The February report typically holds only minor changes to the US balance sheet and moderate changes to the world numbers due to South American production adjustments.

Corn: USDA lowered its ending stock forecast from 2.477 billion bushels to now 2.352. Analysts had expected 2.468. Exports were sharply changed with a 125 million bushel increase. In the commentary, USDA noted US prices were competitive and that ARG and UKR export estimates were lowered. Allendale will remind you export sales this morning only implied were slightly ahead of their January export estimate. This fits into Allendale’s general supportive price outlook but it was unexpected.

World Numbers: World stocks were lowered from last month’s 206.6 million tonnes to now 203.1. USDA lowered Argentine production by 3 million tonnes and their exports by 1.5. Brazil’s crop was left unchanged at 95.0 despite the fact Conab is now at 88.0. USDA raised their exports by 1.0. Ukraine production was revised down by 0.9 mt and their exports were lowered by 0.5. The net change between these three countries is a 1.0 mt drop in exports. Every 1 million tonne equals 59.1 million bushels of corn.

Soybeans: Ending stocks were raised sharply from last month’s 470 million bushels to 530. Analysts were expecting 486. This 60 million bushel adjustment only came from a drop in exports. Allendale warns there are more revisions down coming for exports.

World Numbers: New crop stocks were lowered from 98.6 to 98.1 million tonnes. USDA lowered Argentina’s crop by 2 million tonnes with no change in exports. Brazil’s crop offset that with a 2 mt increase to 112.0 and exports up 2 mt to 69 mt.

Wheat: Ending stocks were raised today from 989 million to 1.009 billion bushels. Analysts were expecting 990. This 20 million bushel increase came from a 25 million drop to exports and a 5 million increase for food use. We have no argument on the export change.

World Numbers: World stocks were lowered from 268.0 to 266.1 million tonnes. Minor production increases were noted for Argentina and Ukraine. Minor export increases were noted for Argentina, Canada, and Russia and a decrease came for the EU.

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