July 17, 2018

NOPA Crush 5-15-2017

Only 139.134 million bushels were crushed in April. That was below the already low expectation of 145.7.

Crush has run below last year for three months in a row now (Feb -2.3%, Mar -2.3%, Apr -5.7%). Year to date crush has fallen to 0.8% over last year. To hit USDA’s whole-year goal of 1.925 billion bushels, itself 2.1% over last year, we now have to see the May – August crush run 4.6% over last year.

It may be hard to hit that strong May – August pace that is needed. Two of those four remaining months were records last year for their respective months.

Plugging in a hoped for 1.8% higher growth the remainder of the marketing year would mean crush needs to be lowered by 18 million bushels.


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