Weather, Exports in Focus

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for June 18, 2020.

Grain Markets have one eye on the latest weather map updates, looking for any chance of a shift in the forecast, while the other looks to export sales later this morning.

Weekly export sales are expected to show corn sales of 500,000 to 1,150,000 tonnes, soybeans 1,100,000 to 2,500,000 tonnes, and wheat 250,000 to 500,000.

World Weather, Inc., who will highlight our Conference Series next month noted, “Western Europe will see a mix of erratic rain and sunshine during the next several days before a weak high-pressure ridge builds over the region during the weekend and expands early next week. Drier and warmer weather will help firm up the ground and may slow development in some of the driest areas.” We’ll continue to monitor the latest.

Weekly ethanol production disappointed at 841,000 barrels per day last week. That was minimally over the 837,000 the prior week. Compared with last year, last week was -22.2%. That is only slightly over the -23.6% the prior week.

A Russian union of grain exporters said that Russia’s wheat crop is expected at 75 million tonnes this year. The estimate might be a little low, however, with USDA estimating the crop at 77 million tonnes, and another Russian analyst at 78 million.

Russia’s agriculture ministry is set to change the mechanism it uses to set its grain export quotas and would present its final proposal on the issue in October. The ministry had said on Tuesday that Russia’s grain exports would not be subjected to any quotas from July to December but that it planned to impose quotas in the second half of the season running from January to June 2021. (Reuters)

US Trade Representative Lighthizer, speaking to the House Ways and Means Committee, said, “Chinese officials have repeatedly affirmed commitment to live up to obligations under the phase one deal.” Many in US agriculture are sharing growing doubt about this deal.

Light “show” cash cattle bids were reported at $102 today. There were no bids offered to the nine lots of cattle on the Fed Cattle Exchange today.

Cattle processing estimate hit 120,000 head yesterday. This is the best of virus-recovery. A normal summer weekday would run about 122,000.

Hog slaughter yesterday reached up to 460,000 head. A summer weekday run would normally be 488,000 – 490,000.

USDA Cattle on Feed report will be released this Friday at 2p.m. CDT.  May placements are expected 0.2% under last year at 2.060 million head. It would be the lowest May placement in four years.  Allendale anticipates a Marketing total in May of 24.3% under last year at 1.567 million.  Total Cattle on Feed as of June 1 is expected 1.0% under last year at 11.617 million. This would be the lowest June 1 total in two years.

Monthly USDA Cold Storage report will be out Monday, June 22nd at 2 p.m. CDT.  Allendale projects a 580 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of May (622 million lbs. five-year average). Our estimate represents a decrease of 35 million lbs. from the previous month.  Beef stocks are estimated at 457 million lbs. (five-year average of 444 million lbs.). This would be a decrease of 33 million lbs. from the previous month (five-year average for this month is a 19 million lb. decrease).

Dressed beef values were lower again with choice down 9.96 and select down 5.09.  The Feeder cattle index is 128.41.  Pork cut-out values were up 1.20.

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