Spotlight Shifts Back to Supply and Demand

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for July 10, 2020.

Grain Markets are turning their attention back to USDA this morning, awaiting the latest in Supply and Demand numbers. After the numbers are digested, focus will quickly turn back to weather, specifically the high pressure ridge developing in the U.S.

Yield Changes for today’s WASDE are unusual, only 4 of the past 20 years for corn and 3 of the past 20 for soybeans.

New Crop Ending Stock Estimates the WASDE suggest a decline for corn from 3.323 billion in June to 2.683 and soybeans from 395 million to 414. Allendale is at 2.806 and 414 respectively.

New Crop Wheat Production is expected to decline from 1.877 billion to 1.848. The drop will come from “other spring”. Allendale sees the total at 1.856.

NOAA gives a 50-55% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~50% chance). Find out what this could mean for you at our AgLeaders conference series. We’ll be live with Drew Lerner of World Weather, Inc. in less than three weeks! Register here.

Weekly export sales had corn totaling 1,008,587 metric tonnes, 599,242 for old and 409,345 for new crop. This was within the 450,000 – 1,100,000 trade expectation. Soybean sales totaled 1,334,332 metric tonnes, 952,193 for old and 382,139 for new. That was within the wide 700,000 – 1,800,000 trade expectation. Wheat sales were 251,140 tonnes in sales, 326,140 for current. This was under the 393,463 five year average.

The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its 2020/21 harvest estimate to a range of 18-19 million tonnes from the 21-22 million previous expectation on dry weather. Earlier this week, crop estimates for France, Russia, and Ukraine were all lowered as well.

The cattle market is monitoring the changes on the weather updates closely. Heat stress can throw off weight gains. If severe enough, a case for losing weight can be made.

USDA reported whole-US weights for cattle from two weeks ago. Steer carcasses picked up 6 lbs. in that week to 896. Dressed heifer weights grew by 3 to 826. Compared with last year steer weights increased from +4.2% to now +4.9%. Heifers grew from +4.2% to +4.7%.

Beef export sales were poor at 9,486 tonnes. This was 56% under last year in the same week. Year to date sales come to 550,557 tonnes, 6.7% under last year. Pork export sales ran 31,474 tonnes. That was 180% over last year. Year to date sales of 1,285,118 tonnes are noted, 37% over last year.

A 4.56 jump in Wednesday’s pork cutout was certainly notable. When pared with yesterday’s 4.45 jump, futures became interested and gapped higher.

China’s dwindling pace of meat imports, thanks to its tough measures against coronavirus contamination, will provide further support for prices already buoyed by a severe shortage of pork, analysts said. (Reuters)

Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 0.24 and select down 0.69. The Feeder cattle index is 133.69. Pork cut-out values were down .04.

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