October 21, 2018

Iowa Corn Yields Expected Down

Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for August 25, 2017.

Grain markets react to the latest yield estimates as Hurricane Harvey continues to barrel towards Texas. Outside markets anticipate this morning's Durable Goods/Orders reports, and the speech by Janet Yellen in Jackson Hole.

Farm Journal's four-day crop tour wrapped up yesterday with a look at fields in Iowa and Minnesota. Corn yields in Iowa are estimated to be lower than last year with an average estimate of 179.79 bushels per acre. In Minnesota, yields are expected higher than last year at 191.54 bpa.

For some fun we ran a quick one-week yield survey total using just the raw producer-given yields from the Allendale survey. Our raw survey numbers suggested South Dakota at 139 (USDA Aug 140), Nebraska 185 (USDA 183), Ohio 172 (USDA 171), and Indiana 167 (USDA 173). For Minnesota our numbers suggested 186 compared with USDA August at 183. These states are where USDA is correct. The questions that our survey raised deal with Iowa and Illinois. We could still use your help if you haven't submitted your numbers. The quick survey can be found here. Official estimates will be out next Friday.

Weekly export sales data was released for the week of Friday August 11 to Thursday August 17. We are now nearing the end of the marketing year for corn and soybeans, August 31, so our focus for old crop is on shipments and no longer on new sales. Combined corn sales totaled 525,672 metric tonnes (102,350 old + 423,322 new). That was within the 450,000 - 950,000 trade estimate. Old crop corn shipments come to 2.115 billion bushels as of the 17th.

Soybean export sales were reported at 1.609 million tonnes. Of that, there was a net cancellation of old crop of 400,274 tonnes. New crop sales by themselves were strong at 2.009 million tonnes. This 1.6 estimate was much over the 650,000 - 1,050,000 trade estimate. Shipments came to 2.084 million bushels. We assume another 70 million in exports by August 31 which puts the total to 2.130 billion. That would be just under USDA's current goal.

Wheat export sales ran 386,437 tonnes (all current crop). That was within the 300,000 - 600,000 trade expectation. The wheat marketing year started anew on June 1. We have 424 million bushels on the books so far. That is slightly under the 431 five year average by this point. There are no problems with US wheat exports.

Hurricane Harvey is the main weather story of the day. Landfall is expected early tomorrow morning, "and it promises to produce copious amounts of rainfall over multiple days. The combination of an impressive storm surge and rainfall in the range of 10.00 to more than 25.00 inches will be horrendous for a huge part of the Coastal Bend region damaging many square miles of land and property" according to Drew Lerner of World Weather.

Managed Money Funds were estimated buyers of 1,000 corn contracts in yesterday's trade. They were also estimated to have bought 7,000 soybeans, 4,000 wheat, and 5,000 soymeal. Traders estimate they sold 3,000 soyoil contracts.

Allendale’s August Ag Leaders Webinar is set for August 29th at 8:00 pm CDT. This month we will be discussing Yield Estimates and Macroeconomics with R.J. O’Brien’s Chris Modaff. Register Here

Weekly cattle weight numbers were released yesterday for the week ending August 12. The average carcass increased 2 lbs. in the latest week to now 882 lbs. Weights are 8 lbs. under last year in the same week.

Weekly beef export sales were reported at 16,586 tonnes sold between the 10th and 17th. That is the best weekly sale in seven weeks. It is also double last year's 8,030 in the same week.

Weekly pork export sales came to 20,143 metric tonnes. That was the best in eight weeks. On the other hand, this is a normal time for year for an increase. In fact, we would need to point out it was 26% under last year's 27,055 sold in the same week.

Dressed beef values were lower with choice down .58 and select down .81. The CME Feeder Index is 143.42. Pork cutout value is down .75.

Technical Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our content, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or service@allendale-inc.com

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