June 24, 2017

Weekly Exports Sales 5-18-2017

Weekly export sales for the period from May 4 to 11 were reported this morning by USDA's FAS branch. Corn sales totaled 873,332 metric tonnes (705,325 old crop). That was within the 550,000 - 1000,000 trade expectation. We have sold 93% of USDA's whole-year expectation. That is within the 92% to 95% sold by now in the last three year of normal South American crops. USDA's whole-year export shipment goal is 2.225 billion bushels. To hit that shipment goal we need sales of 2.245 billion. With our current year to date sales of 2.079 billion we only need additional sales from now through August 31 of 166 million bushels. In the past three years of normal SA crops we have remaining US sales of 136. We should meet USDA's export sales goal.

Soybean export sales totaled 396,779 tonnes (355,279 old crop). That was within the 300,000 - 650,000 trade expectation. USDA's total old crop export shipment goal is 2.050 billion bushels. To hit that shipment goal we need to have sales of 2.086 billion. Through today's numbers we have already sold 2.107 billion. We are already 21 million bushels over USDA's goal and still have 3 1/2 months left of the marketing year. We may end 30 - 40 million bushels over USDA's current goal. This may more than offset our concern that domestic crush may run 20 to 30 million under USDA's goal.

Wheat export sales ran 640,626 tonnes (247,565 old + 393,071 new). The trade expectation was 250,000 - 600,000 tonnes. The old crop marketing year ends on May 31. USDA's export shipment goal for the year is 1.035 billion bushels. We have shipped out 908 million bushels so far. Assuming 60 more from donations and 48 million in remaining shipments for the month we assume a realistic whole-year target of 1.024. We may run about 10 million bushels short of USDA's old crop goal.

The new crop wheat marketing year starts on June 1. We have 114 million bushels of new crop sold. That is the smallest pre-harvest export pace in five years. USDA's guess for new crop whet exports is 1.0 billion bushels, just over the five year average of 972. We are running a little low on new crop wheat export sales.


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