December 13, 2017

Weekly Export Sales 8-3-2017

US: Weekly export sales were reported today by USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service branch. This covered sales made from Friday July 21 through Thursday July 27. USDA reported a combined sale of 474,946 metric tonnes during this time (36,694 old/438,252 new). This was under the 500,000 - 900,000 tonne trade expectation. The old crop sale was the lowest of the marketing year that started on September 1, 2016. At this close to the end of the old crop marketing year that closes on August 31 we are monitoring shipments rather than new sales. We have shipped out 2.020 billion bushels of corn through July 27. There are exactly five weeks left of the old crop marketing year. In the past three years we shipped out 169 - 246 million bushels in that timeframe. Allendale suggests a 200 million bushel guess for this year is very conservative. That would put total shipments at 2.225 billion. At worst we will miss USDA by 5 million. It is likely we will beat them by 5 to 10 million though.

US: New crop corn sales remain weak with a 175 million bushel pre-harvest total booking so far. That is the worst in 11 years (176 - 366 million). We won't panic too much about the poor new crop corn pace but it is something of minor concern.

US: Soybean export sales totaled 600,906 metric tonnes (233,394 old/367,512 new). This was within the 350,000 - 750,000 trade expectation. As with corn, we are now focused on actual shipments than new sales for old crop. We have so far shipped out 2.013 billion bushels as of July 27. USDA's whole-year export goal is only 2.100 billion. In the past three years we have shipped out from 19 to 171 million bushels over the next five weeks. We suggest the next five weeks will likely run similar to last year's 171 million shipment. That could run this year's total to 2.184 billion. A more moderate 140 million remaining export would put the total to 2.153 billion. Allendale suggests we will beat USDA's hold crop estimate by 50 - 80 million bushels.

US: New crop soybean sales remain poor, now at 235 million as of the 27th. This is the lowest in 10 years than ran from 241 - 625 million by this point in time. Unlike corn, we do suggest it is already time to cut the whole-year estimate. It is likely Brazilian sales will push into part of our traditional seasonal export season dominance. Our estimate is 100 million under USDA.

US: Wheat sales over the past week were poor at 145,549 tonnes (all current crop). This 145,549 tonne number, which converts out to 5 million bushels, is the lowest sale for this particular week going back to the 1987 start of the USDA database released to the public. For what is still early in the marketing year that started on June 1, this is a low number. Our total sales so far come to 370 million bushels. That is just under the 383 five year average.


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