June 19, 2018

Weekly Export Sales 4-20-2017

Combined old and new crop corn sales totaled 848,172 metric tonnes (756,352 old crop). This will be considered neutral as it was within the 800,000 – 1,300,000 trade expectation.

We have sold 89% of USDA’s whole-year goal by this point. That is right within the 86% - 90% range of the past three normal South American crop years. We are on pace to meet USDA’s corn export estimate.

Soybean sales of 225,004 metric tonnes were noted (211,004 old crop). This was under the 400,000 – 800,000 trade expectation.

We have sold 101% of USDA’s whole-year shipment goal. That is in the 98% - 101% pace from the past three normal SA crop years. This would suggest we are on pace to at least meet USDA’s soybean export goal.

USDA’s whole year shipment goal is 2.025 billion bushels, a new record. To meet that shipment goal we need to have sales of 2.058 billion as we don’t ship everything that is sold. Year to date sales come to 2.047. We only need to sell and extra 14 million bushels from now until the end of August. That will be easy to do as the past three years of normal SA crop years posted sales of 28 – 74 million during this time. We are going to exceed USDA’s soybean export sales goal. This may end up offsetting our concern over poor domestic crush.

Wheat export sales ran 551,139 metric tonnes (413,964 old crop). That was within the 350,000 – 750,000 expectation.

There are only 6 ½ weeks left before the end of the old crop marketing year (May 31). We can now start monitoring shipments rather than sales. USDA has a shipment goal of 1.025 billion bushels. As we donate wheat we only need to ship out 969 million bushels to normal paying customers. Year to date shipments come to 816 million bushels. 153 million more bushels are needed for shipments until May 31. That may be hard to do as the past five years averaged only 125 million. We may slightly miss USDA’s wheat export estimate.

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