October 21, 2018

Wake Up Call

China’s GDP Figures Released

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for October 19, 2018!

Grain Markets are trying to find a reason to change the recent bearish trend as demand appears weak and the crop size looks big. Cattle traders will look to this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report for their next direction.

Weekly export sales for the week ending October 11th reported corn sales of 382,534 tonnes, well under the 800,000 – 1,300,000 trade expectation. It was also the third weakest sale for this particular week in history. Soybean sales totaled 295,566 metric tonnes (293,566 for 2018/19), also well under the 600,000 – 1,000,000 expectation, and the lowest in history for this week. Wheat sales came in at 475,998 metric tonnes, were within the 300,000 – 600,000 trade expectation.

The Federation of Argentine Transporters is expected to strike in Argentina next week. The transportation union is calling for an increase in trucking rates to counteract inflation in the country. The vast majority of Argentina's ag production is moved by truck.

NOAA released updated long term maps which cover the start of Winter in the US. Much of the country looks to see above normal temperatures and normal to below normal precipitation. The South is the exception with the weather agency expecting above normal precip.

The Environmental Protection Agency can allow sales of higher-ethanol blends of gasoline year-round without Congress, its acting administrator said on Thursday, adding that the oil industry should drop its threat of a lawsuit to halt the move. (Reuters)

Managed funds were sellers across the board yesterday. Traders estimate they sold 10,000 corn contracts, 11,500 soybeans, 3,500 wheat, 4,000 soymeal, and 3,000 soyoil.

Existing Home Sales is the lone economic report out today at 9:00 AM CDT. Outside markets may focus more on any new news out of Washington on trade issues, as well as any Fed comments or discussions on interest rates.

China's GDP was pegged at 6.5% year over year in the last quarter according to state figures. This missed the average analyst estimate of 6.6%, and added to concerns that the ongoing trade war with the United States is hindering the worlds second largest economy.

Beyond Meat has hired investment banks for an initial public offering, people familiar with the matter tell CNBC. The IPO will be the first public stock offering for one of the slew of new companies that make vegetarian meat products that also appeal to carnivores. (CNBC)

Cattle on Feed will be released today at 2:00 PM CDT.  Allendale estimates Placements 0.2% over last year at 2.154 million head, which would be the largest September placement in seven years. Marketings are estimated in September at 0.7% under last year for a total of 1.771 million.

Cold Storage will be out Monday at 2:00 PM CDT. Allendale projects a 591 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of September. Beef stocks, at 537 million lbs., are over the five-year average of 467.

Beef sales this past week came to 13,080 metric tonnes for the current 2018 calendar year. That was 4% under last year. The past four weeks have averaged 8% under last year. Pork export sales last week totaled 20,762 metric tonnes. This number was 81% over last year’s surprisingly low number for this specific week.

Dressed Beef Values were higher with choice up 2.26 and select up 1.16. The CME Feeder Index is at 155.50. Pork cutout value was down .40.

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