July 22, 2014

Wake Up Call

Can the National Corn Yield be 185 Bushels per Acre?

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 22, 2014 at 4:30 am CDT.

Grain futures are higher on bargain hunting in technically oversold markets.

Update – Morning Coffee Commentary:

Crop conditions remain steady at 76% G/E for corn and Soybean conditions improve by 1% to 73% G/E.

Traders and analysts are trying to get a handle on just how big the corn crop could be. Rich Nelson will be discussing this issue in detail on Wednesday during the Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference.

Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference “Summer Update” will start TODAY. Signup now!

What kind of yield adjustments will the USDA make on the August report? History suggests they will not give us the highest yield until the crop is harvested and in the bin.

Ryan Martin, Allendale’s Meteorologist and Branch Office Manager will discuss weather patterns and the likelihood of an early frost this afternoon as we start the conference series.

Export shipments for soybeans were 3.6 million bushel which is about one million less than last week. We need to ship 6 to 7 million bushels per week to meet USDA total export goal for soybeans. Corn exports are running short of the pace needed to meet the USDA’s estimate.

New crop corn bookings as of July 10 is about 64% of the pace set last year. It appears world buyers are waiting for the price to work even lower before they step in to buy.

Soybeans have seen China and other countries buy last week which suggests they are satisfied with current price levels. Currently export bookings for 2014/15 are near last year’s pace as of July 10.

Cattle on showlist are down 27,000 head from previous week. Cash trade is expected to be steady to higher as tight supply of market ready cattle is the driver. Beef values rebound on Monday as choice is up 2.07 and select is up 1.43. The CME Feeder Index is 210.88.

Hog slaughter for the week ending July 19 is down 8.90% from last year and total pork production is down only 3.97% for the same period. So far this year pork production is down only 1% compared to last year. Trade is expecting hog numbers to remain tight into Sep due to effects of PEDv. Pork cutout values were down 2.57.

Markets as of 4:30 AM CDT          

  • Sep Corn   +1
  • Aug Beans   +11 1/2
  • Sep Wheat   +1 1/4
  • Aug Cattle  +.35    
  • Aug Hogs    -.02
  • Sep Dlr     +.18
  • Sep S&P     +6.25
  • Aug Crude   +.57
  • Aug Gold   -6.10

 

Chart of the Day

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    Allendale Advisory Contributor:

    Pgeorgy

    Paul Georgy

    Paul is one of the founders of Allendale. He is very active in the futures industry and currently serves on the Board of Directors of the National Futures Association.

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