Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for October 21, 2014 at 4:30 am.

Traders Focus: Harvest progress, harvest weather and demand.

Grain markets are slightly higher, China’s GDP release had minor impact on Macro markets.

The USDA says as of Sunday we are 31% harvested in corn compared to 33% expected by the trade and 53% average. Soybean harvest is 53% complete compared to trader estimates of 53% and 66% average. This is the slowest soybean harvest since 2009. Winter wheat planting is 76% completed which is very close to normal.

Brazil soybean planting was put at 10% by AgRural compared to 19% last year and 20% average.

Export sales are being watched closely as corn sales need to run 12% above a year ago to meet the USDA’s target. Soybean sales are running well ahead of last year and current levels could give reason for increasing USDA’s estimate.

November option expiration is on Friday.

Weather forecast suggests clear conditions for the balance of the week in the Midwest where we should see aggressive harvest progress. South American weather is getting rain where needed.

Ahead of the next weeks FOMC meeting Fed officials are chattering that QE3 will end as scheduled.

8:00 AM Update – Morning Coffee Commentary:

China’s GDP grew 7.3% in the third quarter which was down from the 7.5% growth in the second quarter. This is the weakest growth rate since early 2009. Thursday China will release their PMI updates that could provide a glimpse of global growth.

The World Trade Organization has rejected US rules requiring labels on packaged steaks, ribs and other cuts of meat identifying where the animals were born, raised and slaughtered. In a ruling Monday, they said the requirements put Canadian and Mexican livestock at an unfair disadvantage.

Last week steer carcass weights increased to 896 pounds compared to 875 pounds last year. Beef production remains 6.2% below last year even with this increase.

Cold storage data will be released on Wednesday and trade is expecting stocks in cold storage to drop 24% from last year to 338 million pounds.

Beef values remain firm with choice up .68 and select up .39. The CME Feeder Index is 241.84.

Live hog weight difference is starting to narrow compared to last year but that does not translate into a positive. At this time last year, hog weights began to increase. Hog movement could be a bit lighter as farmers focus on field work. Pork cutout values continue to slide as they were down another 4.55 on Monday.

Markets as of 4:30 AM CDT                                                                     

  • Dec Corn   + 1/4 
  • Nov Beans   +4 3/4
  • Dec Wheat +1 1/4
  • Dec Cattle  +.30
  • Dec Hogs    -.20
  • Dec Dlr     +.02
  • Dec S&P   +2.00
  • Nov Crude   +.48
  • Dec Gold   +7.10

Technical Chart of the Day

daily chart

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