April 21, 2014

Wake Up Call

Great Weekend For Planting Progress

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for April 21, 2014 at 4:40 am.  

Grain futures are lower due to weather and profit taking.

The week ahead has something for everybody. Corn traders will be talking about the planting progress made this weekend. The USDA will give us the official numbers at 3:00 pm today. Trade is expecting as much as 15% planted versus 18% average.

Soybean traders will be watching for any official announcement on cancellations or switching of soybean purchases by China.  RJO’s Sao Paulo affiliate is hearing more reports of PRC soy cargoes unable to load as buyers are unable to open letters of credit which is pressuring basis as beans back up in ports.

The weather forecast for the southern plains and estimates of frost damage to the winter wheat crop will have an impact on wheat futures.

The Russia/Ukraine situation continues to intensify but so far has been a battle of words. Any further military action will have an impact on world economies. Grain markets will be very sensitive to events in the Black Sea area due the possible impact on shipping commitments.

The weekly commitment of traders report showed Managed Money funds reducing long positions in corn by 19,634 contracts. They increased long positions in soybeans by 5,285 and reduced long positions in wheat by 4,979 contracts.

On the economic front in the US we will get existing home sales on Tuesday and new home sales on Wednesday. The week ahead will also be a big week for corporate earnings reports.

The USDA announced late last week new rules for reporting of PEDv with hopes to slow the spread of the virus.

Cash hog values continue while lean hog futures rally. The trade is expecting much bigger declines in hog supplies going into the summer months. Product demand should pick up this week as retailers restock coolers for the cookout season. Pork cutout value is up 1.26.

Cattle are hoping to see some improvement in packer interest this week. Product values are mixed with choice up .47 and select down .20. The CME Feeder Index is 179.95. Livestock futures could start steady to lower.

Markets as of 4:40 AM

  • May Corn    -3 1/2
  • May Beans   -5 1/4
  • May Wheat   -13 3/4
  • Jun Cattle  Steady
  • Jun Hogs    Steady
  • Jun Dlr     -.02
  • Jun S&P     +1.75
  • May Crude   -.29
  • Jun Gold    -5.80

 Chart of the Day

daily chart

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    Allendale Advisory Contributor:

    Pgeorgy

    Paul Georgy

    Paul is one of the founders of Allendale. He is very active in the futures industry and currently serves on the Board of Directors of the National Futures Association.
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