January 20, 2018

Traders Start The Year as Buyers

Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for January 3, 2018.

Allendale Ag Leaders Conference 2018 is less than a month away. Our lead-off speaker this year is Drew Lerner from World Weather Inc. presenting How Will La Nina Impact Crops in 2018? It will be a live broadcast only. Full Details

Grain Markets are getting positioned for the January 12th USDA reports. If history repeats itself there will be something for everybody coming out of these reports. USDA will be giving us U.S. supply and demand number, quarterly stocks data, world production and demand and wheat planted acreage. Going into these reports, producers can manage your risk by talking to your Allendale Broker and developing a plan. Now is the time to act, not the morning of the report.

Weather models continue to keep Brazil's crops in favorable condition while Argentina remains dry to very dry in some production areas. US Midwest temps should become more normal next week.

USDA issued its whole-US estimate for November soybean crush which was 173.3 million bushels. That would be 1.5% over last year. However, USDA’s whole-year crush goal comes to 1.940 billion bushels or 2.2% over last year.

EIA release of ethanol production and crude oil inventories will be delayed until Thursday morning.

Market Rally with Chip Flory guest analysts today will be Steve Georgy, President of Allendale, Inc.

McDonald's is testing the use of fresh beef in another burger, the latest move by the fast food chain to swap out frozen beef as it seeks to improve its image. (AP)

Beef cutout values surge higher on Tuesday as lighter slaughter and early month featuring by retailers created tight supplies. Cold weather is also reducing supplies of market ready cattle.

Fed Cattle Exchange is offering only 388 head at the auction today. Last week we saw no cattle selling at the auction.

Tuesdays USDA slaughter estimate was 113,000 and last weeks lower than trade estimate supplies could begin to backup. However, at the current price relationship of Feb cattle futures and cash, one would have to believe feedlots could be more current than we think.

February live cattle futures broke technical resistance and closed strong on Tuesday. Next level of resistance comes in at 126.50 with support near 120.00.

Cash hog markets are likely to see some headwinds as supply of hogs kept growing during the week holiday period. February futures contract is at a premium to the index making it difficult for futures to rally.

February lean hog futures have support at 69.15 and resistance at 72.45. The triple top formation on the charts has the old-timers saying it’s made to be broken. Stay tuned!

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 2.24 and select up 3.59. The CME Feeder Index is 155.33. Pork cutout value is up .11.

Technical Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our content, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or service@allendale-inc.com


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