June 19, 2018

Risk Off As Long Weekend Nears

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for February 17, 2017.

Grain markets are lower ahead of a long holiday weekend. Markets will not trade Sunday night, or during the day session Monday. Grains will reopen at 7:00 PM CST Monday night.

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6-19-18 Morning Market Commentary

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USDA Baseline numbers out yesterday reiterated their call for -4.5 million for corn, +1.8 for beans, and -1.7 million for wheat for this year. The numbers were released as part of a budget projection process.

Mexico's agriculture minister announced a plan to lead a delegation to Argentina and Brazil to begin talks to move corn purchases from the United States to South America. He said the trip should take place in the next twenty days.

Weekly grain export sales for the period between February 2 and 9 were released yesterday morning. Corn exports totaled 1,068,629 metric tonnes (783,464 2016/17 + 285,165 2017/18), within the trade expectation of 900,000 - 1,250,000. We have sold 74% of USDA's whole-year goal.

Soybean export sales were reported at 1,097,349 tonnes (889,959 2016/17 + 207,390 2017/18),  over the 550,000 - 900,000 tonne trade expectation. We have now sold 93% of USDA's whole-year goal by this point.

Wheat export sales totaled 588,641 metric tonnes (569,141 old crop + 19,500 2017/18). This was just over the trade's 300,000 - 550,000 expectation. We have now sold 87% of USDA's target.

The UN's World Meteorological Organization reports that El Nino could return later this year, giving it about a 35% - 40% chance. Neutral ENSO readings were reported slightly more likely at a 50% chance. Earlier this week Indian forecasts also gave a chance of a return to El Nino this summer.

NOAA made few changes in its latest long term weather forecast update. Spring planting is expected to go very well assuming the warm conditions and normal precipitation that is being forecast.

Funds were net sellers across the board in yesterdays trade selling 4,000 contracts of corn, 10,000 soybeans, 5,000 wheat, 4,000 soymeal, and 4,000 soyoil. Traders will be interested to see the weekly Commitments of Traders report (out at 2:30 PM CT) which will include official reported positions as of Tuesday.

Come join us, “On the Road”. I will be in the following locations next week:

Feb. 22, 2017    Ainsworth, NE at the Elks Lodge

Feb. 23, 2017    St. Paul, NE at Legion Hall

Feb. 23, 2017    Cozad, NE at Elks Lodge

Reserve seating - contact Jim Walz 402-760-1444

Cash Cattle trades were not heard yesterday. Instead, bids remained at $116. Last week's trade was at $120.

A Head and Shoulders top formation continues to show-up on the cattle charts. For today, the support points are 112.42 for the April and 103.48 for the June.

Allendale expects first quarter pork production at 3.1% over last year, inline with USDA's own estimate. A bigger concern, however, may come in the second quarter.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up .88 and select up 1.04. The CME Feeder Index is 128.02. Pork cutout value is 1.06.

Markets At-A-Glance – 5:30 AM

  • Mar Corn    - 3 1/2
  • Mar Beans   -8 3/4
  • Mar Wheat   -3 3/4
  • Mar Soymeal -1.30
  • Mar Soy oil -.58
  • Mar Dlr     +.25
  • Mar S&P     -7.90
  • Mar Crude   -.37
  • Apr Gold    +1.20

Technical Chart of the Day

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