Managing the family farm for 30 plus years following the retirement of my father, before turning the key on my tractor off for the last time, should at least give me a little credit when it comes to knowing how agricultural producers are feeling about another year of extremes, whether it be weather, prices or both. Here in South Central Nebraska, the 2009 growing season could not have gotten off to a much better start. Corn was planted a littler earlier than normal, with emergence and stand population almost perfect. In my drives across the area this week I have seen soybean fields that have also begun to emerge. For all practical purposes planting is nearly complete and we are off to a great start. Moisture is sufficient for the time being but we are 4 to 5 inches below normal since the beginning of the year, which down the road could put non - irrigated crops in trouble without timely rains.
Now if you live in the Eastern Cornbelt, your perspective to the start to the 2009 growing season is completely different. My sister who has lived in San Diego for over 40 years drove from Indianapolis, Indiana to Mendota, Illinois late last week and even she commented that there was a lot of water standing in many of the fields. So I know if she noticed how wet it was, it MUST be wet! Hopefully this week many of those acres will get planted in the slowest planting pace since 1960. Rich Nelson, Allendale's Director of Research, looked at comparing planting date with yield and suggests a potential yield reduction of 9% may be possible. With better plant genetics part of the picture in today's hybrids, this yield drag may be reduced, but this study should at least be used to help guestimate final yields.
Which brings us to the crutch of the problem, "WHAT SHOULD YOU DO?" Early in my farming years, an old banker told me something that has always stuck with me. Over a 10 year period farmers should expect to have a couple of years of great profits, a couple of years of unforeseen losses, with the remaining years when a producer should learn to control risk and cover the costs of his operation. More than likely this is where we are at today. Over the past couple of weeks, money has flowed back into the commodity pits (undoubtedly you have heard this statement in the not too distant past) driving grain prices higher and higher. Funds are back buying corn with the weekly Commitment of Traders report showing Funds adding 56,566 contracts last week. Don't get caught doing nothing. Allendale would love to work with you and we have many tools to in our arsenal that will help in making marketing decisions. One you need to have a look at is our "Position Evaluator for Grains". Sitting on your hands could be the wrong thing to do at these prices. Contact an Allendale representative today to go over our risk management ideas. Don't wait to hear those dreadful words come out of your mouth "I wanted to do something!"
Rich Mosier
Nebraska Branch Office
Davenport, NE
888.439.3636 or
rmosier@allendale-inc.com
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