Pre-release trade estimates for Monday's corn planting progress was in a range of 27-30% versus 10% last Monday, 53% last year and a five-year average of 59%. NASS actual results suggest 27% of the corn crop has been planted as of Sunday, May 4th. The most recent year when planting was less was 1995 and at least 31% planted in 1999. Today's actual corn planting estimate was at least with the range of pre-release estimates and already traded. Usually from a week ago Sunday to this most recent Sunday plantings gain 24% based on a five-year average and 23% when compared to the ten-year average. The gain this past week was 17% and viewed as neutral-bullish to December corn futures.
The six to ten day and two week National Weather Service forecast normal precipitation for the central Midwest, below average for the western Cornbelt and above average for the extreme eastern Cornbelt. The 6-10 day forecasts below average temps for the North East Cornbelt. Allendale views the forecast neutral to bearish new crop corn futures.
Overnight Sunday, solid export sales of old crop corn were reported signaling renewed interest in US corn. However weekly corn inspections were well off pre-release estimates, possibly suggesting increased export competition from Brazil. Allendale estimates Brazil to be an exporter of 8-10 million tonnes of corn this year compared to a three-year average of 7.8 million tonnes. Lastly but of key importance is a ground swell building of politicians jumping on the "higher food price" bandwagon suggesting a rethink of the present ethanol mandate. We now have all three presidential candidates suggesting the same. Senator Obama from the state of Illinois was a surprise when he on Sunday, he joined the other two candidates.
Long term Allendale remains bullish to old and new crop corn. Our research suggests with present planting delays, ending stocks of 211 million bushels versus present old crop corn stocks of 1.332 billion bushels, may not be far away for the 2008/09 marketing year for corn. Allendale is willing buyers of old crop calls. The key question for this Friday's release of the first initial 2008/09 USDA supply and demand projections, will the USDA be as so bold to show a sub 750 million bushel ending stock estimate for corn?
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