Pre-release trade estimates for Mondays planting progress was 17 to 19% and the floor trade suggesting that the five-year average is 30%, Allendale's research suggested the five-year average is actually 35%. Sure enough NASS released its weekly planting pace results, which came in at only 10% versus a five-year average of 35%. We would have to venture back to 1995 to find only 9% planted at this time. A crop, which went in rather well, then drought decimated that particular crop. Historically planting progress for LAST week IS typically 18% and NASS data suggests only 6% was planted, not even half of the normal progress was made. For the current week of the year, typically 24% planting progress is made. This would suggest a planting pace of 34% for next Monday's release, which compares to a five-year average of 59%. Allendale estimates rather than the 24% progress made this coming week, that only 9% to be made suggests next Monday's NASS reported will show only 19%, again versus a five-year average that should be 59%. Again, we would have to venture to 1995 to find only 16% planted. Noted planted delays are IL, 49% behind its five-year average, IA 30% behind, MN 26%, and MO 58% behind.
The National Weather Service latest 6 to 10 day forecast calls for above normal precipitation and normal temperature for AR, MO, IL, IN, MN, WI and southwest MI. The two-week forecast suggests below average temps for much of the northwest Cornbelt and the vast majority of the Midwest. In four words, bullish corn, bearish soybeans. The five-day outlook suggests much of the central Cornbelt from West to East to potentially receive .25 to as much as 2-inch rains.
The key focus remains on corn planting delays and since last Friday may be witnessing the trade finally realizing, fewer corn acres and more soybean acres. Immediately after the release of Monday's crop progress report, rumors were circulating of the potential for non-penalty release of CRP acres. Allendale suggests, too little too late and price will need to ration where corn is used in 2008-09. End users give serious consideration of placing protective measures on rising corn input cost for 2008-09. Contact your Allendale Representative for alternative ideas.
|
|
|