The pre-release trade estimates for Monday's planting progress was 7-10% versus 2% last Monday, 9% last year and a five-year average of 17%. NASS actual results suggest that 4% of the corn crop has been planted as of Sunday, April 20th. The most recent year when only 4% of the corn crop was planted for this week of the calendar year was 1993, the year of the great Midwest Flood. In 1996 only 2% of the crop was planted for week 16 of the calendar year.
Spring wheat planting progress is said to be 20% complete versus 8% the previous week and compares to a five-year average of 23%. The winter wheat crop condition report was released for the third time in 2008. The 18 states, which made up the majority of 2007 production, came in at 45% good to excellent versus 47% the previous week. One year ago, conditions were 55% good to excellent with a five-year average closer to 57%. The trade was anticipating today's report to come in a range of 46% to 48% good to excellent.
Typically by May 4th of a given year, 50% of the corn crop has been planted. With present delays, the burning question is, how much could actual yield suffer. Allendale's Research found 8 years when a particular year's planting pace was below its respective 5-year average pace. Of the eight years, seven ultimately had actual yield develop below USDA's trend yield. Most recently in 2007, USDA estimated trend yield at 151.8 bushels per acre and the actual yield were set back .5% to a level of 151.1 bushels per acre. In 2007, by May 4th, the planting pace was 44% versus a five-year average of 58%. The extreme in trend and actual yield was 1993 (Great Midwest Flood) when by May 4th 12% of the corn crop was planted versus a five-year average of 38%. The percent change from trend yield to actual yield was 21.3% or 127.9 to finish at 100.7 bu per acre.
Allendale's research suggests that if by May 4th and the planting pace is 10% less than the five-year average of 59%, yield is expected to decline 4.8% versus Allendale's trend estimate of 155.28 bu per acre (USDA has not yet released its trend yield estimate for 2008), which would suggest an actual yield of 147.8 bu per acre.
In the bigger picture, with a reduction of 7.5 bushels per acre versus the trend, production could be estimated at 11.575 billion bushels, which would bring projected ending stocks of 219 million bushels and a Season Average Farm Price of $7.30 per bushels versus our present (average conditions) estimate of $6/bu SAFP. There is a graph of the complete study following this report. Or if you have access, you can find the graph within the Allendale Advisory Report on our "Of Interest" page. If you have any questions or comments, please call 800 551 4626.
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