USDA's month of April projected ending stocks for soybeans at 160 million bushels was within the trade range of pre-release estimates and 4 million bushels away from the average estimate of 156 million bushels. A bigger surprise was the 1.86 million metric tonne increase to world stocks mainly from Brazil, Argentina and as well as the 20 million bushel ending stocks increase to US stocks.
Domestic Ending Stocks are presently estimated at 160 million bushels versus 140 million bushels last month and 574 million bushels last year. The 160 million bushels are the lowest domestic ending stocks amount since the 112 million bushels figure in 2003. Stocks-to-use of 5.3% are the tightest, dating back to 2003's 4.4%, which is still the record low dating back to 1980. The 2006/07 ending stocks-to-use was at 18.7%. At no time dating back to 1980 has there been a 13.4% reduction in ending stocks-to-use from year to year.
World stocks are now estimated at 49 million tonnes, which compares to last months 47 million tonnes and last years 61 million tonnes. This is down 20% in one year. April's 49 million tonnes compares to a five-year average of 48.2 million tonnes. World ending stocks-to-use is now at 15.9% versus 15.3% last month. The five-year average has been 17.96%. Last year ending stocks-to-use for world soybeans was 21.4%, representing a downward correction of 5.5%. Dating back to 1980 the 5.5% downward correction year on year is a record.
USDA's March estimated season average farm price of $10.00 to 10.80 with an average of $10.40 per bushel compares to Aprils season average farm price of $10.25. The SAFP for the 2006/07 marketing year was at $6.43 or $3.82 less.
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