USDA is scheduled to release its April World Agricultural Supply and Demand estimates this Wednesday the 9th at 7:30 am central time. Allendale estimates 2007/08 corn ending stocks of 1.427 billion bushels, which compares to last months estimate of 1.438 billion bushels. The 2006/07 ending stocks were at 1.304 billion bushels for corn. The range of estimates for this report is from 1.138 billion bushels to 1.538 billion bushels for corn.
In looking what to expect from the March to April report, over the past 10 years, on average USDA has increased projected corn ending stocks by 60 million bushels. The largest increase has been 260 million bushels with the maximum decrease of 50 million bushels. In 8 of the past 10 years USDA has increased the ending stocks an average of 87 million bushels. In the 2 years that USDA decreased stocks, it was by an average of 48 million bushels.
For soybeans, Allendale estimates 2007/08 ending stocks at 120 million bushels, which compares to last months estimate of 140 million bushels. In 2006/07, soybean-ending stocks were at 574 million bushels. The ranges of estimates for this report are from 120 to 180 million bushels.
The 10-year past history from the March to April report in soybeans, the USDA on average has decreased projected ending stocks by 15 million bushels. The largest increase has been 20 million bushels, with the maximum decrease of 40 million bushels. Only in 1 of the 10 years has USDA increased the ending stocks by 20 million bushels, while in 7 of these 10 years, USDA has decreased stocks by an average of 24 million bushels.
For wheat, Allendale estimates 2007/08 ending stocks of 237 million bushels. This compares to last months estimate of 242 million bu and ending stocks for 2006/07 at 456 million bushels. The ranges of estimates for wheat in this report are 237 to 282 million bushels.
Over the past 10 years for wheat, on average USDA has decreased projected ending stocks by 8 million bushels. The largest increase has been 52 million bushels, with the maximum decrease of 54 million bushels. In 2 of these 10 years, USDA has increased the ending stocks by an average of 42 million bushels, while in 7 of these 10 years USDA has decreased stocks by an average of 23 million bushels.
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