March 31st Prospective Plantings for all Wheat was 63.803 million acres, this compares to the Allendale estimate of 62.33 million acres. USDA's acreage estimate implies harvested wheat acres for 2008 of 53.95 million acres and using a trend yield of 41.5 bu/acre suggests that total US production would reach 2.239 billion bushels. With carry-in stocks of 242 million bushels and imports of 90 million bushels, it suggests a total supply of 2.5716 billion bushels. Total usage is estimated by Allendale estimates the total usage of wheat at 2.235 billion bushels. This projects ending stocks at 336 million bushels and implies that stocks-to-use at 15%. The present 2007/08 ending stocks-to-use is at 10%. Increasing stocks suggests a season average farm price for 2008/09 at $5.80/bu versus the present 2007/08 level of $6.65/bushel.
Since 2004, from the March Prospective Planting Report to the June Acreage Report, USDA has increased acreage 75% of the time. The average increase has been 210,000 acres with a minor increase correction of 202,000 acres in 2007 and a maximum increase of 745,000 acres in 2006. In 2005 USDA decreased acres from the March to June report by 512,000 acres.
USDA is not expected to release its first 2008 spring wheat planting progress until April 7th. The five-year average for that period of time is 8% complete, 50% near April 28th and 83% complete by May 12th.
According to the Texas Statistics Service, its weekly wheat condition report released Monday estimates the good to excellent conditions now at 19% versus 16% a week earlier and compares to one year ago levels of 67% good to excellent. According to the Oklahoma Statistics Service, its weekly wheat condition report released Monday estimates the good to excellent conditions at 43% versus 43% a week earlier and compares to one year ago levels of 74% good to excellent. Finally, according to the Kansas Statistics Service, its weekly wheat condition report released Monday estimates the good to excellent conditions at 44% versus 48% a week earlier and compares to one year ago levels of 77% good to excellent.
Long term Allendale remains supportive to new crop wheat futures based on how weak 2008 winter wheat conditions went into dormancy and the present tight old crop stocks. The majority of the northern hemisphere wheat crops are doing well, with the exception of dryness in north central China.
|
|
|