Corn Fundamentals: Corn continues to find supportive interest from the speculative sector based on a weak US dollar suggesting better than average interest in US old crop supplies. There is growing concern that uncooperative weather could dash ideas of an early spring planting of corn that would take full advantage of the longer growing season varieties. Quarterly Stocks: Allendale's second quarter corn stocks estimate implies a usage of 3.252 billion bushels. That is a record second quarter usage. March 1 stocks are the largest since March 1, 1988 when 7.636 billion in stocks were reported. The three-year average use has been 2.796 billion bushels and five year average use of 2.715 billion bushels.
Soybean Fundamentals: The key driver of the soybean futures is the nearly two week farmer strike in Argentina that is having outreaching impact on the worlds need for vegetable oils and protein meals. The strike originally planned for 2 days has been gaining international attention. During Wednesday's trade it was announced that Bunge has declared "Force Majeure" on some shipments from Argentina to international demand because of the ongoing strike. Argentine farmers suggest they do not know when the strike will end, but the suggestion is, when it ends, some of the bullish air within soybeans is likely to leave. Quarterly Stocks: Our 2nd quarter soybean stocks estimate implies a usage of 1.040 billion bushels. That is record usage, not just for the second quarter but any quarter. The three-year average use has been 890 million bushels and five year average use of 873 million bushels.
Wheat Fundamentals: after Wednesday's close, Egypt has issued a tender to buy 55,000 to 60,000 tonnes of wheat for May 11-30th shipment. Turkey announced it was canceling a tender to buy 250,000 tonnes of HRWW from the US because of technical reasons and is expected to re-tender before weeks end. Quarterly Stocks: Our third quarter wheat stocks estimate implies a usage of 481 million bushels. That is the largest third quarter usage in four years. The five-year average usage is 455 million bushels and three-year average of 454 million bushels. The March 1 stocks estimate of 647 million bushels is a record low and compares to year earlier levels of 857 million bushels.
|
|
|