For those that missed Allendale's Joe Victor participating in a Webinar put together by the CME Group entitled "A New Era for Grains and Oilseeds" here is a short recap of that event.
Allendale Inc forecasts a 7.2 million acre decrease in corn acres. This decline is the largest since the 7.4 million acre reduction in 1995 plantings. Allendale's estimate of 86.438 million is the second largest in the post 1950 period. The average estimate suggests 2008 plantings of 87.387 million acres, with a range of 84.7 to 89.75 million acres and compares to the USDA's February Outlook Forum estimate of 90 million acres. Allendale is forecasting a 10.6 million acre increase in soybean plantings. This would be the largest one-year jump ever. The 74.239 million acre estimate represents the fourth largest soybean acreage ever. The average estimate suggest 2008 plantings of 71.721 million acres, with a range of 70 to 74.239 million acres and compares to the USDA's February Outlook Forum estimate of 71 million acres.
Plans however, do not always hold and actual plantings measured by USDA's Crop Acreage report that is released in June are frequently different from the Planting Intentions report that is released the end of March. By looking at the chart below, each of the last 4 years, actual corn acres have exceeded the March Intentions number and in three of the four, they exceeded the intended level by more than 1 million acres. On the other hand, actual soybean planting have fallen short of intended levels in all four years with two of the four being more than 1 million acres. Victor pointed out that these deviations were not caused by changes in the price of corn as prices had fallen from March to June. Allendale's Victor attributed the added corn acres mainly to good weather, which allowed more corn planting than was anticipated earlier in the year. These extra corn acres then took away from planned soybean acres.
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