Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2007/08 are reduced 20 million bushels to 140 million this month, the lowest since 2003/04. Soybean exports are raised 20 million bushels to 1,025 million reflecting strong sales, especially to China, and reduced soybean exports from Brazil as good crush margins and strong demand for soybean meal and oil result in an increase in projected crush. U.S. soybean oil production is increased this month due to an increase in the oil extraction rate. Domestic soybean oil use is reduced due to lower projected use for biodiesel. The U.S. Census Bureau has reported reduced biodiesel production from soybean oil for 6 consecutive months, and a declining share of total biodiesel production from soybean oil as soybean oil prices have climbed. Soybean oil exports are raised sharply this month reflecting strong sales and shipments through February. Stocks are also projected higher.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $10.00 to $10.80 per bushel unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $320 to $350 per short ton, up $15 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price is projected at 53 to 57 cents per pound, up 5.5 cents on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2007/08 is projected at 390.1 million tons, down 0.2 million tons from last month. Higher sunflower seed and peanut production only partly offsets lower soybean and rapeseed production. Global soybean production is reduced 0.2 million tons to 219.8 million. Bolivia's soybean crop is reduced 0.8 million tons as excessive rains and flooding have reduced projected harvested area and yields. Soybean production for Brazil is projected at a record 61 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month. Yields are projected record high due in part to reduced losses from rust. Global rapeseed production is reduced 0.9 million tons to 47.6 million mainly due to lower output in China resulting from lower yields. Other changes include increased peanut production for India, increased sunflower seed production for EU- 27, and increased rapeseed production for Australia. Argentina soybean production for 2006/07 is raised to 48.8 million tons, up 1.6 million, based on reported crush, import, and export data for the marketing year.
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