The following is a brief description of what Allendale Inc. presented at its 18th Annual Outlook Conference on Saturday January 19th "Today's Reality-Tomorrow's Opportunity".
Allendale projects 3 million fewer corn acres to be planted in 2008 compared to 2007. We are using a projected yield of 155.3 bushels per acre to arrive at 12.809 billion bushels and by adding in 2007/08 carry in stocks, we arrive at a total 2008/09 supply of 14.243 billion bushels. Allendale anticipates that nearly 450-million bushels less corn for feed use than 2007/08, but we increased corn use for ethanol and exports. This puts the 2008/09 estimated ending stocks at 731 million bushels. Which translates into a Stocks-to-Use ratio of 5% and would match the record low dating back to 1980 of 1995. Allendale estimates the 2008/09 Season Average Farm Price for corn at $4.45, this compares to the USDA's present $4 for 2007/08.
Allendale projects 6 million more acres of soybeans to be planted for the 2008 harvest versus the 2007 crop. Allendale is using a projected yield of 42.3 bushels per acre that will produce a 2.906 billion bushel crop, the then by adding in 2007/08 carry in stocks, we arrive at a total 2008/09 supply of 3.091 billion bushels. We are estimating nearly 98 million bushels less use than 2007/08. This puts our estimate for ending stocks for the 2008/09 marketing year at 196 million bushels. That is slightly more than the 177-million bushels ending stocks for the present 2007/08 marketing year. Ending Stocks-to-Use would be at 6.8%, this would compare to the 2007/08 figure of 5.9%. Our estimate for the 2008/09 Soybean Season Average Farm Price is at $10.25. This compares to the current 2007/08 Season Average Farm Price of $10.40.
Allendale feels that planted acres for wheat will increase 3.6 million acres for the 2008 harvest compared to the 2007 acreage. Allendale is using a projected yield of 41.5 bushels per acre to arrive at a production figure of 2.247 billion bushels. Then add in the 2007/08 carry in stocks and we estimating a total 2008/09 supply of 2.592 billion bushels. We feel that there will be nearly 41 million bushels less wheat use than in 2007/08. So Allendale is estimating the 2008/09 ending stocks will be 312 million bushels, this compares to 292 million bushels for the present 2007/08 marketing year. Ending Stocks-to-Use of 14% would compare to last year's 13% figure. Allendale estimates the 2008/09 Season Average Farm Price at $5.60, which is less than the current 2007/08 Season Average Farm Price of $6.65. Looking back a few years, the projected days supply of wheat were 135 days as recent as 2000/01 and 2001/02. Presently the days supply of wheat is estimated at 39 days. With increased production, slightly less use, Allendale estimates the days supply of wheat available after demand is met at 50 days, which would represent the second lowest dating back to 1999/00.
Those wishing more on the specific details of the 2008/09 corn, soybean and wheat outlooks presented at the Allendale Conference may order individual disc's or the complete set by calling 800 551 4626. If you prefer to order on-line please see the another section in today's e-Snapshot to direct you to our shopping cart.
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