The following is a brief description of what Allendale-Inc. presented at its 18th Annual Outlook Conference on Saturday Jan 19th "Today's Reality-Tomorrow's Opportunity". Looking at wheat, Allendale projects 3.6 million more acres to be planted for the 2008 harvest compared to 2007. Allendale uses a projected yield per acre of 41.5 bu per acre to arrive at a total production of 2.247 billion bushels and by adding in the 2007/08 carry in stocks we arrive at total 2008/09 supply of 2.592 billion bushels. Nearly 41-million bushels less use than in 2007/08, puts the estimated 2008/09 ending stocks at 312 million bushels. We currently stand at 292 million bushels for the present 2007/08 marketing year. Ending stocks-to-use of 14% would compare to 2007/08's 13% S-T-U. Allendale estimates the 2008/09 Season Average Farm Price at $5.60 versus 2007/08 at $6.65. Projected days of wheat, were near 135 days as recent as 2000/01 and 2001/02. Presently the day's supply of wheat is estimated at 39 days. With increased production, slightly less use Allendale estimates the day's supply of wheat available after demand is met at 50 days, which would represent the second lowest dating back to 1999/00. The accompanying chart shows the days of supply for world wheat has been constricting and compares to other competitive starch crops such as corn and rice.
For Corn Allendale projects 3 million fewer corn acres to be planted in 2008 than last year. Allendale uses a projected yield per acre of 155.3 bu per acre to arrive at a production total of 12.809 billion bushels and by adding in 2007/08 carry in stocks, arrives at a total 2008/09 supply of 14.243 billion bushels. We are projecting nearly 450-million bushels less corn for feed use than 2007/08, but have increased corn use for ethanol and exports. This puts our estimated 2008/09 ending stocks at 731-million bushels. Ending stocks-to-use would rest at 5% and would match the record low dating back to 1980 of 1995. Allendale estimates the 2008/09 Season Average Farm Price at $4.45 compared to USDA's present $4.00 for 2007/08.
Those wishing more specific details of the 2008/09 Allendale Outlook Conference may order individual discs or the complete set by calling 800 551 4626 or you may complete an order form online by clicking the link in the promotional advertisement in this e-Snapshot.
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