When the 2008 Winter Wheat crop went into dormancy this past fall, the good to excellent conditions were the third weakest dating back to 1989. Allendale research suggests that when Winter Wheat enters dormancy in poor or weak conditions, by the time the majority of the summer harvest nears its completion, the condition ratings have remained weak. Allendale estimates all wheat production for 2008 at 2.247 billion bushels. If realized this would put ending stocks at 312 million bushels with and ending Stocks-to-Use ratio of 14%.
The production in 2007 was 2.067 billion bushels with ending stocks estimated by USDA at 292 million bushels. Be aware that Allendale's research suggests that USDA has been unwilling to make adjustments to the January Winter Wheat Seedings report in either the March or June Acreage reports.
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