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The China soybean buying team was at the CBOT and announced they are buying 200 million bushels of US soybeans. Better hope they keep in communication with the USA as they initially suggested they were anticipating purchases of 477 mil bushels for the new marketing year. Total soybeans to be purchased from world suppliers are estimated to be 31-33 MMT or 1.18 bil bu.
Planting Pace: news wires suggested the soybean planting pace to be 25 to 35% while the CBOT floor suggested 30-35% to be planted as of May 13th. The five year ave is 32% and the actual level which NASS reported today after the close was 32%. Very much neutral. Next weeks five year ave is 50%.
End Stocks to Use: for 2007-08 domestic end stocks to use are projected at 10.5% vs 2006-07 end stocks to use of 20.1%.
2007-08 Production: USDA estimates new crop production at 2.745 bil bu vs last years 3.188 bil bu. Allendale estimates new crop soybean production of 2.774 bil bu and after demand estimates new crop end stocks at 423 mil bu. The reason for Allendale's higher end stocks comes mainly from our estimate of new crop exports to be 1.025 bil bu vs USDA's 1.08 bil bu which they also have for old crop export use. Allendale is estimating a little lighter crush level in 2007-08 at 1.78 bil bu vs USDA's estimate of 1.79 bil bu. Interesting to note USDA still has not created a clearly define line item for soybeans used for biodiesel. In previous conversations with USDA, estimates suggest 480 million bushels of soybeans to be used for biodisel for 2007-08 vs 240 mil bu in 2006-07.
USDA's Crush: at least USDA has the right direction in mind by increasing the old crop soybean crush vs mth earlier levels but a mere 5 mil bu is 15 mil bu too shy. Based on the most recent Census Bureau data for soybean crush, USDA needs to project soybean crush at 1.785 bil bu and not the 1.77 billion they presented last Friday. Today, the National Oilseed Processors Association released its month of April crush data. At 139 mil bu it is 6.1% higher than year earlier results. For the first 8 mths of the 2006-07 marketing year, NOPA's crush amount is running 77 mil bu less than the US Census Bureau or an ave of 9.625 mil bu per month.
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