The commentary written last Friday laid out clearly, the supply situation for beef in the first half 2009. We ended with, "does it matter?" Given the intense focus this market has on the economy, and Monday's price action, that was the right attitude. This week cash cattle hit a new low for this downtrend at $82. In the big picture, until we can say the economy has a bottom bears are in control. Our fundamental outlook suggests, with no rebound in the economy, 2009 futures are about fairly priced. Tyson Foods, the nation's largest meat company, reported the beef segment of their company broke even in the October – December quarter. Our records indicate this was down from the $159 million profits reported in the July - September quarter. It was however, better than the 68 million loss reported in the fourth quarter of 2007. From here on out though we look for beef packers to make minimal profits, if not actually lose money, straight into 2011 as beef supplies tighten.
With beef prices moving higher last week and cash cattle prices falling, beef packers have a good margin this week. We would look for steady cash cattle trading this week with the major direction still dependent on the economy. At current beef demand levels (economy) our projections suggest 2009 futures are fairly priced.
Cattle Technical Commentary: Cattle took out the short-term downtrend Monday, but closed just under it. This could lead to further weakness Tuesday. Then the recent lows may get tested or possibly broken. The small overhead gap has not been enough to pull this market up just yet. For more technical information, including charts and trade recommendations, please visit the Advance Charts section of the Allendale Research Center.
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