On Wednesday, it was estimated funds bought 6,000 contracts of corn. There were no new big-ticket export demand tenders, but as aggressive as commercials have been on the buy side since last week's weekly export sales report, Allendale anticipated there would be firm weekly export sales to be announced this morning, and there were. Number two world corn exporter Argentina is experiencing good pollination weather this growing season. Traditional number three-corn exporter, China remains as a non-competitor at the present time. The new number three-corn exporter, Brazil is likely to be a noted competitor within the next 30 days as their harvest shifts into high gear.
Allendale anticipates that the Brazilian soybean harvest will see delays next week as weather looks to turn wet. If these delays hold true, this will put this years harvest behind year ago levels, but above the five-year average. Argentinean soybean weather has been good during pod fill and will benefit yield expectations. China has extended its low import tax on soybeans, which is good for both South American suppliers and US. High international prices for soybeans are expected to result in increased oilseed plantings for 2008. Keep an eye on spring weather developments in China's northeast region, as it has been dryer than usual.
New overnight wheat tenders Tuesday out of Jordan (100 K tonnes) and Iraq (50 K tonnes) combined with Morocco's 136 K tonnes and Japan's 117 k tonnes indicates renewed interest in the world wheat supply after the recent price break. Meanwhile, the American Bakers Association is turning the heat up on Washington DC as they have scheduled a walk on Washington for March 12th. They have hopes to curtail wheat exports, as well as other production positive moves, until bakers and other domestic users are guaranteed the supplies they need. 2007's restricted wheat supply and a weak US dollar has much to do why the US has been an aggressive 2007/08-wheat exporter, causing prices to rally more than anticipated earlier in the marketing year. Allendale Inc suggests that curtailing exports as the American Bakers Association is promoting is NOT the answer, as we do not need to re-live the longer lasting negative impact on rural America as we have already experienced in the Nixon and Carter administrations when similar actions were taken.
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