Soybean Fundamentals: Shoving aside the 2008 acreage debate, which was news after the currency market closed. Those with interest in the exchange rate between the US Dollar versus the Brazil Real, it broke through key support of 1.725 and managed a close just above it. Lower low, lower high, with Thursday's low at 1.7006 and a close of 1.731. This action is likely more favorable for foreign demand of soybeans, meal, oil and corn coming from Brazil and Argentina pending harvest and weaning demand from the US. Also of interest, the latest news suggests that the rapeseed damage in China's oilseed producing region may be closer to 10% and not the 40%, which China suggested in late January.
Wheat Fundamentals: No threatening weather on the horizon for world wheat. Allendale's research suggests a forward declining export sales trend has been the historical norm, with a notable drop by April. Signals of old crop economic rationing is apparent. Fresh fundamental news is like parchment and paper-thin. Japan was a Wednesday overnight strong buyer of US wheat. Japan plans to increase the cost of its wheat to its domestic millers by 30% in April.
Corn Fundamentals: As of last week, corn is having difficulty in trying to decide if it can trade on its own and confused if it should trade along side higher crude oil, the metals along with a weaker dollar. Be aware a noted major investment fund player has been flashing signals of bear spreading. Typically this can be an early warning bearish signal if fresh fundamentals are lacking. Supportive to corn futures is continued solid exports, as a result of a weak US dollar and lack of international competition. Also supportive to corn futures are tight world stocks of corn, rice and wheat; at least until the new crop wheat harvest begins in the northern hemisphere.
|
|
|