he Allendale estimates have been released for the upcoming WASDE Report due out this Friday. Immediately of interest is how domestic corn stocks of 1.397 billion bushels are actually fewer than year earlier levels despite record 2007 production. More alarming are the 71% reduction in soybean stocks and the 41% decline in wheat stocks. You would have to venture back to 2003 to find fewer soybean stocks of 112 million bushels, accompanied by world stocks of 38 million metric tonnes. Between 2002 and 2003 the season average farm price of soybeans jumped $1.81 per bushel. Thus far the season average farm price for soybeans has jumped $3.47 per bushel compared to 2006 levels. Dating back to 1980, domestic wheat stocks have never been fewer than our estimated 267 million bushels. The previous low was 377 million bushels in 1995 and the season average farm price jumped by $1.10 per bushel. Realize at that time world stocks were relatively cushioned at 153 million tonnes versus our present projections of 110.45 MMT, historically the lowest dating back to 1980.
Allendale took part in national poll on recently by the Reuters News Agency. They released the results of a national poll, which was collected much of last week. Reuters is attempting to ascertain the planting prospects for 2008, well in advanced of the USDA Planting Intention report to be released on Monday March 31st. Results of the poll found that the average acreage for corn planting this spring is 89.077 million acres, in a range of 87.5 to 91.5 million acres. Allendale estimates the 2008 corn acreage at 90.6 million acres. Last year's planted acreage for corn was 93.6 million acres. The estimated average soybean acreage for 2008 was 70.128, in a range of 68.5 to 73.0 million acres. Allendale is projecting 2008 soybean acreage at 69.33 million acres. One year ago, producers planted 63.63 million acres of soybeans. The Reuters poll showed an estimate of 63.191 million of wheat acres will be planted for the 2008 harvest. The range of estimates was from 62.0 to 64.5 million acres. Allendale is using 64.03 as its projection for wheat. In 2007 US farmers planted 60.43 million acres.
It is shocking to see the reduction in corn acres. Even our own Allendale estimate suggests a total supply of 14.243 billion bushels will be produced using trend line yields. With a demand of 13.513 billion bushels, it will result in ending stocks dropping to 731 million bushels. This compares to current ending stocks of 1.397 million bushels.
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