Bullish to corn futures are thin world starch stocks of corn, wheat and rice. Also bullish to corn futures is the continued demand for old crop corn and the immediate lack of world supply competition. Bearish to corn is Allendale's Weekly Historical Price Trend page that suggests there are 70% odds of a lower March corn futures for this weeks trade compared to last Friday's close. Also bearish to corn is that the US dollar is flashing signs of strengthening and may be perceived as bearish to exports. Also bearish to corn is the building floor trade discussion of a USA recession.
Bullish to wheat prices are the still thin world and domestic stocks and the aggressive pace of 2007-08 export sales, inspections and shipments. In the face of rising prices, tightening stocks and continued demand are bullish to futures. Also bullish to wheat is the pure lack of export competitions from traditional suppliers during this time of year. Bearish to wheat like the corn is talk of a USA inspired recession. Also bearish to wheat is the early warning signals of tempered demand for US wheat. Thin volume of trade is expected to keep futures action choppy for CBOT SRW.
For Soybeans the 30-day forecast for South America does not signal any wide sweeping potential crisis. Reality suggests Brazil's soybean crop is doing well with "some" dry weather stress in extreme south Argentina. Speculators have run soybean oil futures and cash to unprofitable levels as a feedstock for soy-diesel. Weekly Export Inspections thus far in the 2007/08 marketing year are 8% weaker than year earlier levels. This is disappointing as we approach the South America soybean harvest.
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