December 21, 2014

Morning Weather

December 18th, 2014

Corn Weather

Mostly dry in Argentina from the end of this weekend through the 26th. Good rains still on tap for the 27th through the 30th. Temps normal to slightly above.

We are leaving rain forecast alone in Brazil corn areas too…with 2-4 inches at least through Jan 3. .

Scattered showers only have a 30% coverage rate in South Africa for corn production areas the rest of this week and most of next. Increased moisture potential comes in for the 27th through early January as 2 systems bring half to 2 inch rains and 70% coverage.

US Corn Belt weather is pretty benign over the next few days. A strong storm system still is possible for Christmas Eve and Christmas day in the east. Models continue to argue over exact track. What bothers us just a bit about that system is that it seems to want to have its main body low develop on a track from Saskatchewan to the Great Lakes. That track puts in some snow, and there can be some wind…but we question the potential of a massive storm out of that kind of movement. We would feel much more interested if the main part of the storm were developing with the southern low, coming out of TX and OK. But…we will continue to monitor. Another system may try and work out of the plains and Rockies around the 27th through the 30th. Cold air is definitely back…temps moderate a bit in the northern plains and upper Midwest tomorrow through early next week, but in general, we do not see a major warm up anywhere.

Soybean Weather

Rain chances will be nearly constant over the next two weeks in the south and southeast part of Brazil. That may not lead to actual rain everyday…but the likelihood is high. Farther north, we are seeing a few more reprieve days, where there is lesser or no chances of rain in the main soybean belt. However, we are keeping our two week totals at 2-4 inches over most of the country with coverage at 90%. Really, there is no change in the pattern in tight.

Wheat Weather 

- Moisture moved out of KS and OK overnight and actually was slightly better in KS than anticipated. Emphasis on slight…moisture equivalents were still under a quarter of an inch in most areas, and the western part of HRW country really got missed. Going forward, TX and OK get good rain for the weekend. Next weeks moisture will be limited to hit and miss rain and snow that will amount to under a quarter of an inch of water equivalent. A stronger storm may work out of the central Rockies next weekend. Models differ on how well it holds together as it moves east.

Cattle weather

- The weather seems to be the least of the worries for Cattle. But…we do see some colder air coming later next week and for the turn of the year. We are keeping an eye on the 26th through the 29th as models are showing a big winter storm in CO…and if it moves east while holding together…it could make life a bit interesting.

Hog Weather

Good rains over the Southeast out of the weekend and early next week system. Then more rain late next week with the remains of the Christmas system. Drier for the last week of the year, but things can get very active again for new years. In general, though, rains stay in the 1-3 inch range combined through the 27th, but winds will be far less of a concern for us going forward.

Midwest hog areas still need to be wary of significant snows next week, but see our comments in the corn section about concern over how strong any system for next week really can or will be. We don’t want to be naysayers, and preparation is always a good thing…but the blizzard to beat all blizzards likely will not be happening anytime soon. We still feel there can be some rain to start, but plentiful cold air will actually lead to some snows at some point in the storms cycle. Temps will be well below normal by the end of the month.

    Allendale Advisory Contributor:

    Ryan Martin

    Ryan Martin

    Ryan graduated from Purdue University with a degree in Applied Agricultural Meteorology. Ryan has worked in the private weather sector for 18 years and is also a registered broker/branch manager for Allendale. Click on the picture above for more on Ryan and his contact info.