July 4, 2015

Morning Weather

July 1st, 2015

CORN Weather

A little good news this morning as the heaviest precipitation in the weeks to come seems to be pushing farther south. That does not mean we escape getting rains over the Corn Belt like some producers would like…but the amounts are not quite as strong as we head into July. This means at least at the start, we can look toward a more normal month in terms of precipitation. We still have some active systems that move through, however. Today, moderate to heavy rains are in over MO, and will spread east through the lower OH valley. Rains can be in the half to 1.5” range. The rains can linger through at least tomorrow afternoon, and in extreme southern parts of MO, perhaps into Friday. However, the rest of the Corn Belt looks to be dry right on through Sunday, which would make for at least 5 (count ‘em!) dry days back to back to back over some of the wettest areas of the central and eastern Corn Belt. Temps are not going to set any records to the upside, and in fact will be cool today, but sunshine should be very helpful through the rest of the week. Temps will be normal to below. The next good region-wide front arrives Monday and crosses the region through Tuesday. This front will produce half to 1.25” rains over 80% of the Corn Belt. We follow that with dry days Wednesday and Thursday. Then another system develops between I-80 and I-70 corridors for late Thursday night through Friday, and it can be worth half to 1.5” of rain in those areas with 80% coverage. The extended pattern still looks a little more active, with systems for the 11th-12th and again for the 15th-17th, but that still would allow for 3 days of dryness in-between systems, which is a lot better than what we saw in June. Oh, by the way…it was down to 31 degrees this morning in Nisula, MI, and in the low to mid 30s in northern WI. No major crops up that way…just throwing it out for shock value.

SOYBEAN Weather

Northern beans are happier this morning with the potential for some net drying to occur. MO soybeans will take the brunt of some half to 2 inch rains over the next 2-3 days, along with some mid Mississippi valley beans and beans in northern AR. Rain coverage will be about 80% in those areas. A strong high parking just off the gulf coast may keep rains arcing through this same area over the next two weeks, but we do get some 3-4 day drying windows in-between. Whereas the corn belt bean areas may get net drying because rains are not as heavy…we may just stay put in these mid south bean areas…where the drying takes care of the most recent rains, but that is about it. Bean areas in KS get good rains from this holiday weekend through early next week, but then have a good 6-7 day dry window coming again. Deep South beans will be limited to pop up thunderstorms that are heat based, due to that strong high developing and parking off the gulf coast. That will keep good or frequent rains out of most of the Deep South over the next 10 days. The extended period looks wetter.

WHEAT Weather 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms look to develop over HRW areas tomorrow in to Friday, but will have a big hit and miss component to their passage. WE look for coverage to be no better than about 50% over NE, KS, eastern CO and northern OK. Toward the holiday weekend we see slightly better coverage down in OK and north TX, perhaps up to 60%, but still nothing dramatic. Rain totals will be mostly under half an inch, perhaps up to three quarters in a few spots. A stronger front moves into the plains for early next week, and likely triggers good thunderstorms from Sunday night through Wednesday. Over the 3 day period we like rain totals to be from half to 2 inches with coverage at 80%. Then, dry weather comes in from Wednesday afternoon through early the 13th. We can see minor action around the 13th-14th, and if things work just right, perhaps some better action for the 15th…but right now the heaviest rains toward mid month look to miss HRW areas just to the east.

SRW moisture looks to be the highest over central wheat areas over the next two weeks. WE continue to see moderate rains coming out of MO and moving across the OH valley today through Friday, so OH river wheat areas, Mid-Mississippi valley wheat areas and MO wheat areas will be wetter, especially in the short term. A front early next week will add another half to 1.5”. However, farther north, we should see some net drying over IL, IN and OH wheat areas, with no big rains until early next week. Thunderstorms are likely again late next week in all SRW areas, and the extended period has two more systems…but we should see bigger dry windows in-between all systems as we move through the first half of July.

A strong front still is on the way for this weekend in the Canadian Prairies…and while the front is strong, we still have some concerns on coverage. This is a system that may get to strong and too wound up for its own good. The low looks very powerful, but rains look to be a “1 and done” kind of thing…meaning the front will rip through, you get rain and thunderstorms for a bit, and then it’s gone. So, rain totals still look no better than half to 1.5”, with coverage at 70% over SK, MB and western ON. We think we will be hearing Monday and Tuesday about areas that did not get rain in the Prairies, even though we will also see some decent rain totals.  Dry to follow that system. And winds will be fierce as the system passes by…which may actually be a bigger issue than the rains, given the fires that are ongoing over Canada.

    Allendale Advisory Contributor:

    Ryan Martin

    Ryan Martin

    Ryan graduated from Purdue University with a degree in Applied Agricultural Meteorology. Ryan has worked in the private weather sector for 18 years and is also a registered broker/branch manager for Allendale. Click on the picture above for more on Ryan and his contact info.

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