November 1, 2014

Early Morning Weather Headlines

October 31st, 2014

Corn Belt Scattered showers held together much more impressively yesterday over parts of IL, MO and IA than what they really should have. Granted…precipitation totals were nothing to get excited about…enough to wet the ground a few times…but still, it is a testament to the air mass change that will be working in through the day today and into this weekend. A cold front that is serving somewhat as the dividing line between the cool air and the “really cold” air is working through the Corn Belt this morning, and the Canadian high that will bring the cold air blast is starting to work into the upper Midwest. There may be some gusty winds behind the front that make the temp change feel even worse. Those north winds will serve to enhance some precipitation over northern IL, MI, IN a bit today as well. Like we mentioned earlier in the week…if this event were a month or two later, we would be talking about a very impressive lake effect snow event. But, we still look for mostly rain and a few wet snow flakes. Right now totals continue to be unimpressive. We look for rains of up to .33”, coverage at 50% over the eastern half of the Corn Belt. Western areas get nothing and actually will see sun with the advancing high. {see more}…

Plains – Strong Canadian high pressure in on the move into the northern plains this morning and while the upper level trough steers clear of the plains, the high actually will slip farther west, and will get into a larger part of the plains. What this means is that we will see some frost and freeze conditions well south into southern KS and OK, with some areas even getting close to the hard freeze that can nudge wheat into dormancy. This is not problematic…after all it is basically Nov 1…but still, this part of the country has not seen these kinds of temperatures since March…so its at least a little newsworthy…

Central-Northern Brazil Corn/Soy Belt (Matto Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais, Bahia) – Scattered showers will favor western areas through the next week, mostly in Matto Grosso and Goias. In those areas we can see up to 1 inch of total rain with coverage at 70%. Farther east in Minas Gerais and Bahia, nothing more than scattered showers will fall. The extended pattern has moisture around, but it still want to gravitate toward the west. What bothers us about the latest look at various models is that none seem to want to carry an actual front through the region. So, the moisture that is being shown is suspect for the intermediate and extended period. Either it’s overdone in the areas shown and we will be much drier, or the models are just not handling fronts well over the region right now. For the time being, given the pattern that has been trying to emerge over the past two weeks, we will be conservative and still look for decent moisture potential over the entire region for the extended period…but this needs to be watched closely through the weekend to see if the pattern regresses toward drier solution. Right now, as we have mentioned several times this week…some dryness is not problematic after the rains that have been received…

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    Allendale Advisory Contributor:

    Ryan Martin

    Ryan Martin

    Ryan graduated from Purdue University with a degree in Applied Agricultural Meteorology. Ryan has worked in the private weather sector for 18 years and is also a registered broker/branch manager for Allendale. Click on the picture above for more on Ryan and his contact info.