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No major changes this morning. The next two weeks will see timely rains, with a frontal passage tonight through tomorrow over the Corn Belt, then another system for Sunday night through Monday. We see scattered action lingering across the Corn Belt through next Wednesday, and then another front for the 6th-7th. Each of these systems has the potential for half to 1 inch rain totals with coverage at about 60-70% of the region. Temps will average out to near normal. The extended period suggests a cool down with the GFS model promoting a large, sagging Canadian air mass over the eastern half to third of the country. The GFS has been talking cooler air for a while now, but we are not seeing a large amount of model agreement on the magnitude of the cool down. No matter what kind of cooler push we see, the fact remains that we see no heat over a majority of the Corn Belt.
Soybeans in Corn Belt locations look fine in the weeks ahead with timely rains and no heat. Heat is still an issue in the central plains and in the Deep South. There is no change in the overall weather pattern, with thunderstorms likely in the central plains soybean areas every 2-3 days, bringing rain potential of a few tenths to three quarters of an inch. We like 10 day totals in the half to 1.5” range with coverage at 60%. Rain in the Deep South will likely wait until we get some cooler air to push southward over the eastern parts of the country. This will create a warm air vs. cold air battle that triggers good rains over the region. Until that happens, rains look to be limited to the northern part of the region, near the Mason-Dixon Line where northern fronts stall out.
Moderate to heavy rains kick off today over HRS areas. Actually, rains already have fallen in parts of the Dakotas. SK and MB get into the action as the day wears on, but for right now, the low pressure center is a little farther south than it needs to be for the best rains in the Canadian prairies. This system moves east through Thursday and should give Canadian wheat areas 1-3 inches of rain, with half to 1.5” totals in US HRS areas. HRS areas see scattered showers again this weekend and at midweek next week, but totals will remain under .25-.5” with coverage at 50%.
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