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No major change in pattern in key international areas this morning…so no updates there. For our thoughts on international areas refer to previous write ups from this week.
The pattern continues to get wetter over parts of the Corn Belt in the weeks ahead. The eastern half of the Corn Belt sees rain potential increase in the next two systems, the one that comes through tomorrow and Friday, and the one for next week. This increase in moisture is only seen over the eastern half of the Corn Belt. The western belt still sees the same potential as earlier, although we are open to slightly more rain potential at the end of next week. All told, the two systems can put down half to 2 inch 10 day rain totals with coverage at about 85% of the corn belt. Only MN looks to miss out, with the rest of the Corn Belt seeing good chances. The extended period keep action in the works for the 12th and 14th as well. Temps are going to be mostly below normal. Temps in the northern plains may do no better than the 30s for highs from this weekend through next week. While the air mass will definitely modify as it moves south, still, that tells us what kind of cold, Canadian air we are dealing with as it enters the country…it will not be conducive to anything but below normal temps.
Action is scattered in the Deep south with nothing more than a few showers and thunderstorms between now and Friday night. A front sweeps through Friday night and Saturday brining .25”-.75” rains, coverage at 70%. Next week looks wetter with scattered showers and storms (mostly west near the Mississippi river and north into TN) through Thursday, and then heavy rains with a strong front for overnight Thursday through Saturday morning. Rains from that front can be 1-2.5” with coverage at 90%. Temps will be cooler than normal over the northern part of the region, but should stay near normal the farther south you go.
No change in Brazil, with 2 frontal systems in Brazil bean areas between now and the 10th. We should see combined rains at half to 1.5”, coverage at 90%. Temps stay nearly normal, and there can be some additional heat based showers and storms in the afternoons. Harvest is nearing completion in Parana and Matto Grosso do Sul.
Expect a cold front to sweep through the northern half of the plains later tonight and tomorrow, brining a line of thunderstorms to eastern parts of NE and up into SD. Scattered showers farther north as well. But the front really has limited coverage over HRW areas. We still see a batch of light moisture coming out behind that front for Friday, coming out of northeast CO and moving east, covering a large part of the HRW belt from I-80 to US 50. However, moisture still looks to be minor in that little system…mostly from .05” to .25”. So, while moisture can be talked about, meaningful moisture can not. The rest of the next 10 days will be mostly dry, and warm. Temps this weekend pull back to closer to normal behind the front, but we are back to well above normal next week with good winds. Now, in the “keep your fingers crossed” department, the GFS model tries to hold onto some meaningful rains for HRW in the 13th-14th time frame and again the 16th-17th…but also appears to be a bit overzealous. However, we do think that the change to a cooler pattern in the western part of the country does set us up for some moisture somewhere in there around mid month…so we say moisture is likely…just probably not to the levels the American model is promoting at this time.
Two strong systems in the next 10 days hit SRW areas, but there really is no major change in timing. The first batch of rain hits the end of this week, the second from Tuesday through Friday of next week. Another system or two will try and work out of the plains around mid month. But in general, we like rain totals of half to 2” with coverage at 90%. That is a slight expansion of rain on the upper end of the range.
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