April 18, 2015

Morning Weather

April 17th, 2015

CORN Weather

High pressure sits over the Corn Belt this morning, centered on northern IL and northern IN. we should see a nice, dry day today over the entire Corn Belt with moisture starting to move in over the west overnight tonight into tomorrow. A strong storm complex is slowly working through the central plains and is on track to move into the corn belt as we finish the weekend and start next week. We are not changing our thoughts on the system at all. We look for half to 2 inches with 90% coverage of the entire belt, and we continue to see some of the heaviest rains potentially on ground that may have just been worked or seeded, and some areas may exceed the top end our range bit a bit thanks to stronger thunderstorms.  There also is no change in the cold air mass that dives in behind that front. Temperatures by Friday morning (Thursday night’s lows) will be in the lower 30s and dancing around the freezing mark over the eastern Corn Belt. Precipitation is not as big of a deal now to finish next week, but the system in the plains for the weekend that ejects out to start the week after next is bigger and will take that extra precipitation on. We look for another half to 2 inch rain event for the 26th-27th over 90% of the Corn Belt, and it will be followed by another push of cold air that can be equal to what we see next week. The active pattern continues in the extended period, with a half to 1.5” rain maker for the 2nd-3rd with 80% coverage.


Rain has not had as great of a geographical coverage over the past 24 hours, mostly limited to MS and AL. But, we continue to see action developing as the central plains system moves eastward, and we really se no reason to back away from our heavy rain projections over the region. We look for 1-2 inch rains short term through early Tuesday with coverage at 70%. Then we should put together a few dry days into late next week. We will delay our next system just a little bit, but form the 25th through the end of the period we can see 2 more systems with rain potential of 1-3 inches combined.

WHEAT Weather 

Moderate to heavy rains have moved slowly over parts of KS and OK in the past 24 hours. While the rains have been exceptionally heavy over parts of HRW areas, it has been far from uniform. Heavy rains look to have fallen in northwest KS and south central KS, while minor amounts have been seen so far in southwest KS and northeast KS. The system is moving very, very slowly, so there is plenty of time to see these areas fill in, but for now, the uniformity is something we need to keep in the back of our minds. Also, where the rain has been heavy, its been too heavy…with 2-3 inch rains in some spots, thanks to thunderstorms that barely move or stay stationary. The slowness should allow for moisture to spread a little better today, but we also anticipate hearing about some flooding in some areas. The showers and thunderstorms continue over the region through tomorrow and early Sunday before moving out. Scattered showers hold over OK and parts of north TX for the first part of the week, but should be well scattered and light (comparatively speaking), with amounts mostly under half an inch. Another minor system works through parts of the area from I-70 south for Thursday into early Friday. That event can bring half to 1 inch rains with coverage at 60%. Then a strong low develops over the region next weekend and can be another half to 2 inch rain maker with coverage at 80%. Models did back off of the precipitation strength and spread with this system today vs. yesterday.

SRW areas get more rain this weekend into early next week with half to 2 inch rain potential. Next week we have to look for cold air to be an issue. We don’t think we will see damage…but we should slow the growth process just a little bit. More rain to finish next weekend and start the following week with another cold push from the 28th-30th that rivals what we see next week. Another inch or two of rain potential early in May. We may have a tough time drying things down in SRW areas over the next two weeks or so.

Other than the big storm this weekend from eastern MB across ON, there really is not much to talk about in Canada. The prairies are mostly dry over the next two weeks. Half to 1 inch rain potential does develop from tomorrow through Sunday over eastern MN, with 1-2 inch rains farther east in ON. Temps will be colder than normal for the region through most of next week and likely for a large part of the 2 week period. Temps in the lower 20s next week will be the norm…which is not that unusual…but with the amount of above normal temperature action we have seen so far this year…it likely will trigger a few complaints.

    Allendale Advisory Contributor:

    Ryan Martin

    Ryan Martin

    Ryan graduated from Purdue University with a degree in Applied Agricultural Meteorology. Ryan has worked in the private weather sector for 18 years and is also a registered broker/branch manager for Allendale. Click on the picture above for more on Ryan and his contact info.