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South America -
Pattern in South America is one of decent moisture, but no significant fronts. That is a hard concept to put your finger on…but in that part of the world…it is called the “summer season”. Plentiful moisture coming off the ocean interacts with the warm air to create showers and thunderstorms a lot easier over Brazil. And we don’t really need a front to trigger them. In the next two weeks, we see only a pair of true fronts that impact the region. Those are much stronger over Argentina, and then blend into the line of scattered showers and storms that seems to want to perpetually be around over the central-north areas of Brazil, and the southeast. The first front will be early next week, and the second will be around the 4th-5th. However, even with out lots of active fronts…the region still looks to get plenty of rain. Only parts of Argentina will be drier…and even there we should see enough timely rain to keep from being problematic.
North America -
Short term forecast shows no changes. Temps moderate in high plains today through end of weekend. Temps moderate over the rest of the country as we finish the week.
Temperatures in the western high plains will actually go above normal by 2-5 degrees or so for Thursday through Saturday.
Next system for the country will be all rain. We still like half to 1.5″ with 80% coverage. Low moves from Dallas to Chicago to Green Bay, WI from Friday night through Monday. Heaviest rains move right across the heart of the corn belt. Strong winds to follow.
Large part of the country in days ahead of thanksgiving. Cooler, but no arctic blast.
Changes in the intermediate part of the forecast – System for Black Friday looks much more impressive. Rains can be up to 1 inch, coverage 80% over the lower Mississippi Valley and the eastern corn belt. Preliminary low track looks to go from El Paso to Texarkana to Effingham. Temps nearly normal, but warm enough to keep system all liquid again. However…we do have expectations of a significant push of cold air that weekend that will begin to rival the most recent arctic blast. Temps to start December could be significantly colder.
Extended period hints at possible winter storm for around the 5th-7th. GFS likes this more than other models right now, which gives us pause…but we also like a more active pattern with regard to precipitation in the cold air for December. If the system for Black Friday can come together as advertised…the arrival of the cold air and the residual moisture would make any strong low emergence in the lower plains able to develop fairly easily. So…we like the idea of a system here…we just want to see a few more model runs to nail down intensity, track and type. initial thoughts are that this could be the first significant winter storm for the heart of the country. But…there is plenty of time for that to change.
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