October 21, 2014

October 16th, 2014

North America

Corn Belt

ecmwf_tprecip_conus2_41Models continue to be in good agreement on the pattern over the coming weeks. Rain in the corn belt will come down to a system late in the month. Models keep wiggling a little bit as to the initial start, but it will be in 26th-27th-28th time frame and will last about a day and a half as a front move through. That system will bring in some impressive cold air. AS we mentioned yesterday, that will finally bring a hard, hard freeze to a lot of places that have not really seen that yet .Rain totals with the late month system will be in the half to 1 inch range, coverage at 80%. Western corn belt locations may keep an eye out for the 23rd-24th. We look for some moisture to slide up the backside of strong high pressure sitting over the eastern third of the country into the plains. Some of that may try and drift toward the far western part of the corn belt, but we feel it will not make a good push any farther east. Between now and then, we will see plenty of sunshine, and dry, seasonal weather. Clouds probably take their own sweet time exiting the eastern corn belt today and tomorrow, but will leave eventually.  The map at left is a map of 10 day accumulated precipiation. Notice the large hole over the corn belt…there is excellent harvest potential coming.

Plains – Dry weather continues into late next week. Mositure works up the backside of a strong high to the east for next Thursday and Friday…this can bring some half to three quarter inch rains to the region to finish next week. Coverage will be about 70% of the entire plains. A cold front for the 26th-27th will bring aother chance for half to 1 inch rains, but it will have lesser coverage, more around the 50% range. Temps will be normal to above normal through the period.

Tropics –

Invest90LGonzolo will hammer Bermuda short term as a major hurricane. We continue to see potential development out of a low just to the east and south of Gonzolo. We also have development expected in the western gulf in the next week, as models remain keen on a storm originating in the Bay of Campeche area. However, this may be a number of days out.

 

 

 

South America

Central-Northern Brazil Corn/Soy Belt (Matto Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais, Bahia) – Moisture is not coming out of the models as the extended period morphs into the nearby time frame. We still see good rains beginning to overspread the region around the 23rd, and then continuing through the end of the month. If there is one part of the region that might get ripped off, it looks like it might be Bahia…where we just don’t see extension of the additional rains from the 25th-31st like we do farther west. So, basically 1 more week of the dryness, over this part of the country, and then things get much, much better.

South/Southeast Brazil (Matto Grosso do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, Santa Catarina, Sao Paulo) – Two fronts pass and have nice dry windows behind them between now and the 25th. But from the 25th to the 31st, we can see rains park over the region. So, we continue to look for two week rain totals of at least 2-5 inches, coverage 90%. Temps will be above normal. This wet forecast continues to raise concern over how much moisture is too much, and also over bigger Asian Soy Rust issues for the year.

Argentina A week front triggers scattered showers of a third of an inch or less Tomorrow into Saturday. Then dry through to next Friday-Saturday, when we can see half to inch rain over 80% of the region. That front will have to hold the area through the end of the month, as better moisture stays farther north.

 

    Allendale Advisory Contributor:

    Ryan Martin

    Ryan Martin

    Ryan graduated from Purdue University with a degree in Applied Agricultural Meteorology. Ryan has worked in the private weather sector for 18 years and is also a registered broker/branch manager for Allendale. Click on the picture above for more on Ryan and his contact info.

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