August 19, 2018

Crop Tours And Surveys Hope To Infuse Excitement Into Grains

August 15th, 2018

Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for August 15, 2018.

Grain markets are watching weather forecasts, however, they are running out of time for major crop loses to develop. The rain forecast for this week could be supportive to US soybean production. Trade is sensitive to tariff news but watch the technical action to be highlighted for a few weeks, or at least until harvest gets in full swing.

Allendale’s Annual Yield Survey will begin on August 20 and run through August 31. We will be releasing the survey results on September 5. Please go to www.allendale-inc.com during that time to share the results of your farm or call us at 800-262-7538.

Egypt buys 240,000 tonnes of wheat in a tender; 60,000 Romanian and the balance from Russia.

Brazilian farmers are expected to plant a record amount of soybean acres during the planting season which starts in mid-September. Céleres, a consulting firm in Brazil is expecting farmers there to increase soybean planted acres by 3.1 percent to 36.2 million hectares (89.4 million acres).

Funds were estimated to have been net-buyers of 15,000 corn contracts, 6,000 soybeans and 6,500 wheat contracts on Tuesday.

Argentina has suspended its program of gradually cutting soymeal and soyoil export taxes for six months as a part of the government's fiscal tightening program. By the end of 2019 soymeal and soyoil export taxes are still expected to be at 18 percent, compared with the 23 percent currently.

US Dollar advanced to a 13-month peak against a basket of major currencies as traders moved to a safe-haven holding U.S. currency as they worry about the fallout from the Turkish lira's decline.

Cash cattle trade started early this week with packers paying dressed 173 in the north. Southern feedlots are waiting for higher prices later in the week. Cutout values jumped on Tuesday as retailers booked needs for the Labor Day Holiday in a few weeks. Fed Cattle Exchange is offering 488 at today’s auction.

Live cattle futures found support Tuesday at 108 in the October contract. Seasonal tendencies suggest the futures discount to cash should begin to shift to a premium. Currently October futures is 2.00 to 3.00 under cash. Future’s traders are not convinced that larger supplies of cattle are on the horizon.

August lean hog futures went off the board in quiet fashion at 3.00 under the current cash hog index. October futures hold an additional 3.00 discount. Trade is expecting further weakness in cash as the 4th quarter approaches. Hog supplies are expected to grow and meat protein supplies are plentiful when adding in beef and poultry. US Dollar index strength also has a bearing on pork exports.

Dressed beef values were mixed with choice up 1.21 and select up 1.61. The CME Feeder Index is 150.64. Pork cutout value is down 1.27.


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