October 22, 2018

Markets Stabilize as Farmers Ramp Up Harvest

October 18th, 2018

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for October 18, 2018!

Grain Markets ended the session slightly lower due to good weather in the forecast which has let producers get back in the field and finish harvest.

The USDA will issue its weekly export report at 7:30 a.m. CDT today.  Trade estimates net export sales of corn between 800,000 – 1,300,000, soybean sales between 600,000 – 1,000,000, wheat sales of 300,000 – 600,000, soymeal sales of 150,000 – 450,000 and soyoil sales between 5,000 – 25,000.

Managed Funds are estimated to be net long 4,000 corn contracts, net short 25,400 soybean contracts, short 17,900 wheat contracts, long 43,800 soymeal contracts, and short 31,100 soybean oil contracts.

U.S. Trade Representative's office told Congress it intends to open trade talks with the European Union, the United Kingdom and Japan.  Under fast-track rules, the U.S. cannot start talks with the EU, Japan and the United Kingdom until 90 days after notifying Congress.  Rep. Kevin Brady, the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, said, "These three economies are some of our largest and most important trading partners, but they are markets in which U.S. farmers, manufacturers, and service providers face significant barriers."

U.S. Ethanol Production for last week declined to 1.011 million barrels/day (297 million gallons/week) from 1.040 mbpd (306 million gallons/week) the week prior. This is the lowest production in 25 weeks (4/20/18), last year's same-week production was 1.019 million bpd (300 mil gal/week).  Despite the production decline, ethanol stocks rose last week to 1.013 billion gallons (24.130 million barrels) from 1.009 billion gallons (24.021 million barrels) the week prior.

USDA's Attache to Russia estimates the countries wheat production at 68.5 million tonnes. This latest estimate is below USDA's official number of 70.0 million tonnes.

Environmental Protection Agency announced it will release its draft rule allowing year-round sales of higher ethanol gasoline blends by February, and end deliberations on the proposal by May, according to the Office of Management and Budget.

Funds yesterday were sellers of 4,500 corn contracts, 3,000 wheat, and 1,000 soyoil. They were thought to be buyers of 2,000 soybeans, and 2,000 soymeal.

Cattle on Feed Report will be released Friday afternoon.  Allendale estimates Placements 0.2% over last year at 2.154 million head, which would be the largest September placement in seven years. Marketings are estimated in September at 0.7% under last year for a total of 1.771 million.

China has reported almost 40 separate outbreaks of the deadly African Swine Fever disease in 10 provinces since early August, leading to the slaughter of almost 50,000 animals.  Over the last week, roughly a dozen cases have been uncovered in the Liaoning province.

Dressed Beef Values were lower with choice down .05 and select down 1.36. The CME Feeder Index is at 155.14. Pork cutout value was down 2.35.

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