November 28, 2014

Markets Provide Recipe For Turkey At Thanksgiving

November 26th, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for November 26, 2014 at 5:30 am.

Traders Focus: Thanksgiving Holiday, OPEC meeting results tomorrow and shortened session on Friday.

Grain futures are higher on limited news items and light volume this morning.

Allendale staff thanks you for your confidence in us. We hope everyone has a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday weekend with family, friends and safe travels wherever your destination.

Traders will be watching for the results of the OPEC leaders meeting tomorrow. However, if they decide to reduce oil production, “Who will believe them?”

First notice day for the December contracts at the Chicago Board of Trade is Friday.

In a quarterly update, the USDA’s Economic Research Service forecast net farm income in 2014 of $96.9 billion, a sharp cut from the $113.2 billion it estimated in August.

The major Black Sea wheat producers of Russia and Ukraine are becoming concerned about the potential to harvest a record wheat crop next year due to the poor condition of their winter plantings. Soil moisture is less than normal which is hampering pre-winter development of crops.

CME Group Inc. should continue to develop strategies to detect an illegal manipulative trading practice known as “spoofing,” said the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released their interoffice preliminary estimate for corn, soybeans and wheat for 2015. They have estimated on this report: 90 million acres planted to corn, 82 million acres planted to soybeans and 56 million acres planted to wheat. They do not put out their office estimate until February.

Critics of the U.S. biofuel mandate have intensified calls for reform of the program after the Environmental Protection Agency said on Friday that it would not be able to finalize targets for renewable fuel use in 2014 until next year. The targets had been due in late 2013. (Reuters)

Update – Morning Coffee Commentary:

The Commerce Department on Tuesday raised its estimate of gross domestic product to a 3.9 percent annual pace from the 3.5 percent rate reported last month, reflecting upward revisions to business and consumer spending.

Expect choppy livestock markets for the balance of trading week. Beef cutout values were a bit higher due to reduced production as choice was up 1.17 and select up 1.42. CME Feeder Index was 240.69.

Hog futures slide on technical selling ahead of the holiday weekend. The first level of support is the low made on Tuesday in the February lean hog contract. Closing below the 50 day moving average could bring out more sellers today. Pork cutout values are down 1.23.

Markets as of 5:30 AM CDT          

  • Dec Corn   +3        
  • Jan Beans   +1 1/4    
  • Dec Wheat   4 3/4
  • Dec Soymeal +5.20
  • Dec Dlr     +.10
  • Dec S&P   +2.75
  • Dec Crude   -.10
  • Dec Gold   -1.90

Technical Chart of the Day

daily chart

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    Allendale Advisory Contributor:


    Paul Georgy

    Paul is one of the founders of Allendale. He is very active in the futures industry and currently serves on the Board of Directors of the National Futures Association.