October 30, 2014

Dollar Rallies On QE News

October 30th, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for October 30, 2014 at 4:50 am.

Traders Focus: Squeeze in soymeal, export sales data and end of QE3.

Grain markets are higher as traders prepare for supportive export sales. The Macro market adjusts after Fed’s announcement to stop QE3 on November 1.

The inability of processors to fill meal export contracts remains the supportive factor for grains. Month end demands by margin clerks is also creating some shorts exiting the market while new selling stands on the sideline. Look for choppy trade today.

Export sales to be released at 7:30 am are estimated for wheat at 300,000 to 375,000 mt, corn 700,000 to 900,000 mt, soybeans 1,000,000 to 1,500,000 mt, soymeal 150,000 to 300,000 mt and soyoil 10,000 to 30,000 mt

Funds are estimated to have bought a net 16,000 soybean contracts, 10,000 corn and 8,000 soymeal yesterday.

Update – Morning Coffee Commentary:

ADM Germany estimates the European Union is likely to harvest 73.6 million tonnes of corn in 2014, up from 64.3 million tonnes in 2013.

USDA Attaché in Moscow pegs 2014/15 Russian wheat production at 57.5 million tonnes, below USDA official estimate of 59.0 million; exports cut to 21.0 million vs USDA official at 22.5 million

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday ended its monthly bond purchase program and signaled confidence the U.S. economic recovery would remain on track despite signs of a slowdown in many parts of the global economy.

October feeder cattle contracts last trading session today and the October live cattle contract’s last day is tomorrow.

The lighter production of beef is supporting cutout values as choice is up 2.07 and select is up .67. The CME Feeder Index is 238.83. Cash cattle trade is still at a standstill as packers are reluctant to pay new all-time highs when their margins have been in the red for more than a month.

Lean hog futures will likely test chart support this morning as outside markets provide more headwinds. Early calls for livestock are steady to lower.

Markets as of 4:50 AM CDT                                                                    

  • Dec Corn   +2        
  • Nov Beans   +4 3/4
  • Dec Wheat  +4 1/4
  • Dec Dlr     +.30
  • Dec S&P   -7.50
  • Dec Crude   -.82
  • Dec Gold   -20.00

Technical Chart of the Day

daily chart

For more on the current technical outlook for corn and soybeans, listen in to the recording of last nights Ag Leaders Webinar, here.

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

    Allendale Advisory Contributor:


    Paul Georgy

    Paul is one of the founders of Allendale. He is very active in the futures industry and currently serves on the Board of Directors of the National Futures Association.