November 29, 2015

Holiday Markets Open Door For Sharp Moves

November 25th, 2015

Happy Thanksgiving! The Allendale Wake-Up Call will publish again on Monday, November 30th.

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for November 25, 2015 at 5:15 am.

Grain markets have a narrow trading range in the overnight session. The US Dollar Index rises through the 100 level and crude oil gives back gains as tensions ease on the Russian-Turkish situation. Light volume is expected during the holiday trading period which could cause sharp moves.

Allendale staff wishes all our readers and customers a very Happy and Safe Thanksgiving. We truly have a lot to be thankful for in 2015. A special thanks to all the Armed Forces who will not be able to enjoy Thanksgiving with family tomorrow as they protect us around the world.

More Market Commentary:

Morning Coffee Commentary 11-27-15

Markets will be closed on Thursday with no night sessions in grains on Wednesday and Thursday. Grains will open at 8:30 am Friday morning and close at 12:05 on Friday.

Trading volume is expected to be light today as many traders have already headed out the door for holiday events.

USDA weekly export sales report will be released on Friday morning at 7:30. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report which usually is released on Friday afternoon will be pushed back until Monday.

President Marci's election in Argentina is continuing to circulate discussions on whether or when the export taxation policy will be changed. The amount of grain which is being held by Argentine farmers if dumped on the market would likely pressure prices.

First notice day for delivery against December CBOT grain contracts is Monday, November 30.

Soybean planting progress in Brazil is 66% complete which remains behind last year’s pace of 74% and the 5 year average of 78%. Its first crop corn planting is 83% complete versus last year’s pace of 84%.

The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 30th annual informal price survey of classic items found on the Thanksgiving Day dinner table indicates the average cost of this year’s feast for 10 is $50.11, a 70-cent increase from last year’s average of $49.41. The big ticket item, a 16-pound turkey, came in at a total of $23.04 this year. That’s roughly $1.44 per pound, an increase of less than 9 cents per pound, or a total of $1.39 per whole turkey, compared to 2014.

CME Group's Fedwatch says in Tuesday’s survey traders, they give a 74% chance of U.S. rate hike in December.

Livestock futures remain choppy as the tug-o-war continues between the technical and fundamental traders. Supplies of heavy cattle are still plentiful and packer margins are negative. We expect product to find support coming out of a short production week going into a first of month and post-holiday featuring at the retail counter. Look for more choppy markets the balance of this week.

Live cattle and lean hog futures open on Friday at 8:00 and close at 12:00.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 1.02 and select up 1.19. The CME Feeder Index is 171.83. Pork cutout values are up 1.32.

5:15 am - Markets At-A-Glance

  • Dec Corn   +1
  • Jan Beans +1
  • Dec Wheat   +0
  • Dec Soymeal +1.10
  • Dec Soy oil +.07
  • Dec Dlr     +.52
  • Dec S&P   +5.25
  • Jan Crude   -.59
  • Dec Gold   -1.90

Technical Chart of the Day

daily chart

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    Allendale Advisory Contributor:


    Paul Georgy

    Paul is one of the founders of Allendale. He is very active in the futures industry and currently serves on the Board of Directors of the National Futures Association.


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