May 5, 2015

Planting Progress Should Beat The Average

May 4th, 2015

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for May 4, 2015 at 5:15 am.

Grain markets are mixed as soybeans are higher with corn and wheat lower. The outside markets are providing headwinds as the dollar and crude oil are higher. The beginning of the month money flow is likely affecting price directions after the majority of the world was on holiday, Friday.

Update – Morning Coffee Commentary:

There seems to be more talk that corn planted acreage could be as high as 50-55% with beans 15% or higher on the progress report this afternoon. The average increase for last week is 20% which would suggest around 40% complete when added to last week’s number. Weather across the cornbelt was excellent for planting in most areas and many of our clients are saying they are finished planting corn and already working on soybeans. The soybean number is expect to be close to 13-14% completed.

The bird flu situation continues to be a major issue as the Governor of IA declared a state of emergency as 4 more cases were reported over the weekend. The trade is concerned about meal demand due to bird loss.

The Kansas Wheat Quality Tour starts up this week which should create lots of headlines. Over the past couple of years this group has had a decent track record with their production estimates.

The CFTC Commitment of Trader showed managed money selling another 27,085 contracts of corn to make them net short 92,383. Funds bought 15,472 contracts of soybeans and sold 10,289 contracts of wheat.

(Reuters) – Tumbling global corn prices have raised the prospect of a pickup in imports by China, the world’s second-largest consumer, as a widening discount to high domestic prices makes full-duty imports more economic.

The economic markets this week will focus on whether Greece can reach a bailout agreement with the Eurozone, Friday’s U.S. April unemployment report, and comments by various Fed officials this week including an appearance by Fed Chair Yellen at a conference on Wednesday in Washington DC.

The bird flu caseload is the largest since 1924. However the findings are not in the main chicken meat producing areas, rather in turkey and egg laying facilities which has not lead to a bullish impact on chicken prices. Considering wholesale chicken breast prices are 9% under last year. Dark meat, which is the bulk of our exports, are 38% lower for legs and 32% lower for leg quarters from a year ago.

Cash cattle end the week with a trade at 160 in the south which was 2.00 higher than the previous week. Cattle slaughter increased to 566,000 head last week which produced 460 million pounds of beef. Supporting that production was the carcass weights being nearly 30 pounds greater than a year ago.

Dressed beef values were mixed with choice down 2.26 and select down .83. The CME Feeder Index is 218.00. Pork cutout values are up .58.

Markets as of 5:15 AM CDT          

  • Jul Corn   -1 1/2    
  • Jul Beans +4 1/2    
  • Jul Wheat   -3 1/2
  • Jul Soymeal +.06
  • Jun Dlr     +.28
  • Jun S&P   +3.25
  • Jun Crude   +.24
  • Jun Gold   +7.70

Technical Chart of the Day

daily chart

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    Allendale Advisory Contributor:

    Pgeorgy

    Paul Georgy

    Paul is one of the founders of Allendale. He is very active in the futures industry and currently serves on the Board of Directors of the National Futures Association.

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