November 26, 2014

November 2014 Cattle on Feed

November 18th, 2014

USDA Cattle On Feed Report for released on 11/21/2014 at 2:00 PM CST

Allendale Estimate NOV USDA
On Feed – Nov 1st 99.4 100.5
Placements 94.2 99.1
Marketings 93.1 92.2

USDA Cold Storage Report for released on 11/21/2014 at 2:00 PM CST

Last Year Last Month Allendale Estimate NOV USDA
Pork Stocks – Oct 31st 565.020 544.998 538.474 524.769
Beef Stocks 440.106 373.344 367.632 374.868

*Cold Storage stocks are estimated – in million pounds while Cattle on Feed is estimated as a percentage compared to last year.

Original Post

October Placements are expected to be 5.8% lower than last year. USDA’s cattle feeding margin ended the month with a $91 per head profit on outgoing cattle (13 months in a row). Corn averaged $3.52 in Western Kansas in October ($3.53 in September, $4.46 in October 2013). October placements supply the March through August slaughter period.

Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 6.1% lower than October 2013. There was no calendar day adjustment for this month.

Total Cattle on Feed as of November 1 now totals 0.6% under last year. That is a decrease over the October 1 total of 0.5% under last year.

Allendale projects a 538 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of October. The five year average is 531 million lbs. Our estimate represents a decrease of 7 million lb. from the previous month. The five year average month to month change for October is a 2 million lb. increase. Beef stocks, at 368 million lbs., are below the five year average of 426. This month’s number represents a 6 million lb. drawdown from the previous month. The five year average change is a 1 million lb. increase.

If you have any questions, please call Rich Nelson, Chief Strategist at 800-262-7538 or email rnelson@allendale-inc.com

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