October 31, 2014

October ’14 Cattle on Feed Report

October 22nd, 2014

Update # 2 – Cattle on Feed Results

Avg Estimate October USDA
Cattle on Feed 99.7 99.5
Placements 101.9 101.0
Marketings 99.1 99.5

Update:

The USDA listed September 30th Pork Stocks at 544.998, and Beef Stocks at 373.344 in the release of the October 22nd Cold Storage report.

Read more in our On-the-Go afternoon livestock commentary.

Original Post:

September Placements are expected to be 4.5% lower than last year. This would be the lowest September placement since the history of the current data series (1996). This is three months in a row of the lowest placements for the data series. USDA’s cattle feeding margin ended the month with a $113 per head profit on outgoing cattle (12 months in a row). Corn averaged $3.53 in Western Kansas in September ($3.97 in August, $5.02 in September 2013). September placements supply the February through June slaughter period.

Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 0.9% lower than September 2013. This was made after a 4.8% adjustment due to the calendar day adjustment for this particular month.

Total Cattle on Feed as of October 1 now totals 1.5% under last year. That is an increase over the September 1 total of 0.8% under last year.

Allendale projects a 563 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of September. The five year average is 529 million lbs. Our estimate represents an increase of 17 million lb. from the previous month. The five year average month to month change for September is a 29 million lb. increase. Beef stocks, at 338 million lbs., are below the five year average of 425. It is also the smallest end of September stock level since 1999. This month’s number represents a 6 million lb. drawdown from the previous month. The five year average change is a 5 million lb. increase.

USDA Cattle On Feed Report for release on 10/24/2014 @ 2:00 PM

                               ALLENDALE

On Feed September 1                 98.5            

Placements                          95.5

Marketings                          99.1

USDA Cold Storage Report for release on 10/22/2014 @ 2:00 PM

                                 Last    Last  ALLENDALE

                                 Year   Month

Pork Stocks September 30      567.827 546.305    563.430

Beef Stocks                   445.159 343.664    338.016

    MiddayWeather-Vane

    WUC