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January 12th, 2017
With these reports out of the way, we're working on our newest 2017 price projections and trade strategies for grains and livestock. Find out how you can get them here.
|Dec 1 US Grain Stocks (million bushels)|
|Last Year||Average Estimate||USDA - Jan 2017|
|2016/17 US Ending Stocks|
|Winter Wheat Seedings|
|US 2016/17 US Production|
USDA issued four separate reports today…Crop Production Annual Summary, quarterly Grain Stocks, monthly supply/demand, and the annual Winter Wheat Seedings. These reports will then fine-tune their estimate of stocks at the end of the marketing year, August 31 for corn and soybeans and May 31 for wheat.
2016 Production Revision: With harvest complete USDA issued the final production numbers today. Planted acreage was reduced by 486,000 today to 94.490 million. A drop in plantings was already implied by the previous release of acreage involved in the farm program by the Farm Service Agency. Yield was also lowered from 175.1 bpa to 174.6. The net of these changes was a 78 million bushel reduction to now 15.148 billion. This remains a clear record but not as burdensome at the 15.196 trade expectation (ALDL 15.179).
December 1 Grain Stocks: Every three months USDA surveys both farmers and users of grain to see how much is still on-hand. This can give the trade a little heads up regarding demand that is not shown by weekly or monthly reports (feed/residual use). For this report analysts add up last year’s ending stocks, the just-finished grain harvest, and estimated imports from September through November. They then take out the “known demand” such as corn for ethanol and exports. The finding of 12.384 billion bushels of corn as of December 1, was over the trade’s 12.300 expectation (ALDL 12.398). Larger stocks left over means that feed/residual usage last quarter was lower than expected.
Ending Stocks: With a 78 million drop for production, and a 50 million drop for feed/residual use, USDA filled in the rest of the balance sheet with a minor increase for imports and a 25 million increase in corn for ethanol. They then brought the estimate of ending stocks, what will be left over at the end of the marketing year (August 31), down from 2.403 billion to now 2.355. That was under the trade’s 2.385 expectation (ALDL 2.345).
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Our newest price projections for grains and livestock will be released January 24th - 26th. Register to get them, here.Filed under USDA Report Estimates | Comments Off on January 2017 USDA Reports