May 4, 2016

April 2016 Cattle on Feed & Cold Storage

April 20th, 2016

Results Summary:

Estimate USDA
On Feed March 1 101.0 100.5
Placements 106.6 104.6
Marketings 106.2 107.1
Pork Stocks 616.572 614.148
Beef Stocks 487.125 466.988

Allendale, Inc. Releases Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage Report Estimates

CHICAGO, IL. (April 20, 2016) – On Friday April 22, 2016 at 2:00 PM CST, USDA will release their monthly Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports. The following are our estimates for the two reports:

March Placements are expected to be 6.6% higher than last year at 1.928 million head. There was one more weekday in March 2016 vs. 2015. This is the biggest March placement in nine years. On the positive end USDA’s cattle feeding margins improved dramatically last month with only a $21 per head loss on a very light 1,250 lb. animal. That is the smallest monthly loss of the entire loss cycle that started in December 2014. Corn averaged $3.46 in Western Kansas in March ($3.60 in February, $3.90 in March 2015). March placements supply the August through October slaughter period.

Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 6.2% larger than March 2015 at 1.732 million. This was the largest March marketing in four years. There was one more weekday in March 2016 vs. the previous year. This artificially added to the number by 3.8%.

Total Cattle on Feed as of April 1 is 1.0% larger than last year at 10.906 million. That is an increase over the March 1 total that was +0.8% from one year ago.

Allendale projects a 617 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of March. The five-year average is 616 million lbs. Our estimate represents a decrease of 12 million lb. from the previous month. The five-year average month to month change for March is an 18 million lb. decrease. Beef stocks, at 487 million lbs., are above the five-year average of 478. This represents a decrease of 3 million lb. from the previous month. The five-year average change is a 5 million lb. increase.

042016-COF

Cold Storage stocks are estimated in million pounds while Cattle on Feed is estimated as a percentage compared to last year.

For questions and comments, please contact Rich Nelson, Chief Strategist at 800-262-7538 or rnelson@allendale-inc.com.

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