March 6, 2015

February 2015 Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage

February 18th, 2015

For report results, see updated table below.

January Placements are expected to be 8.2% lower than last year at 1.863 million head. USDA’s cattle feeding margin ended the month with a $68 per head loss on outgoing cattle. This now makes it two months in a row of losses (prior data showed 14 months of continuous profits). Corn averaged $3.92 in Western Kansas in January ($4.03 in December, $4.34 in January 2013). January placements supply the June through September slaughter period.

Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 6.1% lower than January 2014. There was one less weekday and one more Saturday vs. last year which artificially lowered the Marketing number. Our 1.679 million head estimate is the smallest January marketing since the current data-series started in 1996.

Total Cattle on Feed as of February 1 is 0.4% over last year. That is a decrease from the January 1 total of 0.9% over last year.

Allendale projects a 587 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of January. The five year average is 568 million lbs. Our estimate represents an increase of 90 million lb. from the previous month. This would be the largest January increase in three years. The five year average month to month change for January is a 61 million lb. increase. Beef stocks, at 489 million lbs., are above the five year average of 457. This month’s number represents a 48 million lb. increase from the previous month. This would be a record increase for any previous January. The five year average change is a 10 million lb. increase.

USDA Cattle On Feed Report released on 02/20/2015 at 2:00 PM CST

Estimate February USDA
On Feed 01/01/15 100.4 100.3
Placements 91.8 88.7
Marketings 93.9 90.9

USDA Cold Storage Report released on 02/20/2015 at 2:00 PM CST

Last Year Last Month  Estimate February USDA
Pork Stocks 618.746 497.133 587.378 596.532
Beef Stocks 429.297 441.226 489.331 490.937

Cold Storage stocks are estimated – in million pounds while Cattle on Feed is estimated as a percentage compared to last year. If you have any questions, please call Rich Nelson, Chief Strategist at 800-262-7538 or email rnelson@allendale-inc.com

    MiddayWeather-Vane

    TextMessage