August 29, 2015

August 2015 Cattle on Feed & Cold Storage Estimates

August 18th, 2015

July Placements are expected to be 4.9% smaller than last year at 1.484 million head. This is the smallest July placement since the current data-series started in 1996. USDA’s cattle feeding margin ended the month with a $214 per head loss on outgoing cattle. This would be eight months in a row of losses. Live cattle prices fell from $148 at the end of June to $147 at the end of July. Corn averaged $4.12 in Western Kansas in July ($3.72 in June, $4.16 in July 2014). July placements supply the December through March slaughter period.

Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 6.2% lower than July 2014. There was one less Saturday in June 2015 vs. 2014. This caused an artificial 0.7% lower adjustment. Our 1.676 million head estimate is the smallest July marketing since the current data-series started in 1996. This is the seventh month in a row of marketings at their respective lows for modern times.

Total Cattle on Feed as of August 1 is 1.6% larger than last year. That is a decrease from the July 1 total that was 1.9% over last year.

Allendale projects a 621 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of July. The five year average is 494 million lbs. Our estimate represents a decrease of 11 million lb. from the previous month. This is under the five year average month to month change for July of a 26 million lb. decrease. Beef stocks, at 466 million lbs., are above the five year average of 419. This month’s number represents a decrease of 1 million lb. from the previous month. The five year average change is an 4 million lb. decrease.

USDA Cattle On Feed Report for release on 08/21/2015 @ 2:00 PM

Allendale – Estimate
On Feed August 1 101.6
Placements 95.1
Marketings 93.8

USDA Cold Storage Report for release on 08/21/2015 at 2:00 PM

Last Year Last Month Allendale – Estimate
Pork Stocks – July 31 533.259 632.209 620.958
Beef Stocks 367.942 467.136 466.111

Cold Storage stocks are estimated – in million pounds while Cattle on Feed is estimated as a percentage compared to last year. If you have any questions, please call Rich Nelson, Chief Strategist at 800-262-7538 or email rnelson@allendale-inc.com

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