July 2, 2016

June 2016 USDA Grain Stocks & Planted Acreage

June 30th, 2016

Results Summary:

Quarterly Stocks (billion bu)
USDA June 2015
Avg Estimate USDA June 2016
Corn 4.453 4.528 4.722
Soybeans .627 .829 .870
Wheat .752 .982 .981
Planted Acreage (million acres)
USDA 2015 Avg Estimate USDA June 2016
Corn 87.999 92.896 94.148
Soybeans 82.650 83.834 83.688
All Wheat 54.644 49.869 50.816

The corn and soybean marketing year runs from September 1 to August 31. Every quarter USDA conducts a survey of holders of grain. This “Grain Stocks” report is used to USDA determine whether their projection of ending stocks, what is left over as of August 31, is on target or not. Today’s Grain Stocks report only gives one main number for corn, soybeans, and wheat: the amount of grain left over as of June 1. There are no numbers or discussion about how demand or even an updated ending stock number released. USDA will incorporate these changes to their old crop demand estimates on the next monthly supply/demand report set for July 12. Today’s report helps us fill in the blanks for the demand category of feed/residual over the past quarter. There are no weekly or monthly reports for this demand category.

The second report out today was Prospective Plantings. This was the second producer survey of the year on acreage. As a reminder, USDA does not show us the direct planting number that farmers tell them. They show the direct planting number that has been adjusted by USDA’s assumption of Preventive Plant. There are two separate factors here. Both of those factors changed from the March survey. Don’t forget we had a huge 6.7 million acres that were locked up last year in preventive plant last year. The average over the past nine years of Preventive Plant is 4.95. In years with minimal planting problems it is only 1.5. It is likely today’s 3.2 million more corn, soybeans, and wheat than the March survey is more due to a different Plant adjustment than farmers changing their planting decisions. In other words, USDA is likely not more accurate than it was back in March.

Corn:

June 1 Grain Stocks: Typically, it is the corn stocks which drive the June 30 price reaction. This year it was both the Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage. USDA told the trade they found 4.772 million bushels of old crop corn still around on June 1. This was over the average trade guess of 4.528 (ALDL 4.543). As we have quality data on actual exports and corn for ethanol from March through May this helps fill in the blanks for the big unknown category, feed/residual. To make this number work feed/residual would have had to have only been 925 million for the completed third quarter.

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