January 30, 2015

January 2015 USDA Cattle on Feed Report

January 22nd, 2015

Note: Please see the update below with  results.

December Placements are expected to be 6.9% lower than last year at 1.563 million head. This would be the smallest December placement in five years. USDA’s cattle feeding margin ended the month with a $63 per head loss on outgoing cattle. This ended 14 months of continuous profits. Corn averaged $4.03 in Western Kansas in December ($3.77 in November, $4.34 in December 2013). December placements supply the May through September slaughter period.

Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 5.1% lower than December 2013. As there was one more weekday in December 2014 compared with 2013 this artificially increases the Marketing number. Our 1.647 million head estimate is the smallest December marketing since 2006.

Total Cattle on Feed as of January 1 is 1.2% over last year. That is a decrease from the December 1 total of 1.4% over last year.

Allendale projects a 488 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of December. The five year average is 507 million lbs. Our estimate represents an increase of 2 million lb. from the previous month. The five year average month to month change for December is a 3 million lb. decrease. Beef stocks, at 411 million lbs., are below the five year average of 448. This month’s number represents a 14 million lb. increase from the previous month. The five year average change is a 7 million lb. increase.

USDA Cattle On Feed Report for release on 01/23/2015 at 2:00 PM CST

Allendale January USDA
On Feed 01/01/15 101.2 100.9
Placements 93.1 92.0
Marketings 94.9 95.3

USDA Cold Storage Report released on 01/22/2015 at 2:00 PM CST

Last Year Last Month Allendale Estimate January USDA
Pork Stocks 554.328 485.796 488.281 497.133
Beef Stocks 439.638 396.619 410.730 441.226

Cold Storage stocks are estimated – in million pounds while Cattle on Feed is estimated as a percentage compared to last year. If you have any questions, please call Rich Nelson, Chief Strategist at 800-262-7538 or email rnelson@allendale-inc.com