September 24, 2016

September 16 USDA Supply & Demand Report

September 12th, 2016

Summary:

US Ending Stocks (15/16 in million bushels) - 09/12/2016
USDA August 16 Avg Estimate USDA September 16
Corn 1,706 1,711 1,716
Soybeans 255 232 195
US Ending Stocks (16/17 in million bushels)
USDA August 16 Avg Estimate USDA September 16
Corn 2,409 2,329 2,384
Soybeans 330 330 365
Wheat 1,100 1,103 1,100

Video Analysis:

Each month USDA updates various estimates of supply and demand and revises its moving target for where stocks will end at the end of the marketing year, August 31 for corn and soybeans and May 31 for wheat. The September report is the last of the “estimated” numbers for old crop. It also provides a little more insight into the size of the yet to be harvested new crop. On September 30 USDA will release its survey of holders of grain, both producers and users, to determine the old crop ending stock numbers. USDA will therefore adjust the completed 2015/16 balance sheet on the next supply/demand report, October 12.

September-16-WASDE-US-World-cornCorn: Old crop ending stocks were raised from 1.701 to 1.716 billion bushels. The trade was expecting 1.711. Old crop exports were lowered by 10 million.

No change was made to either planted or harvested acres. That will be held back until October when the farmer surveys from the statistics branch of USDA are adjusted with information from the farm program via USDA’s Risk Management Agency. Yields were lowered from 175.1 bpa to now 174.4. As you would expect this is still a record yield and production. The trade was expecting 173.4. The 15.093 production is only 60 million under last month’s estimate. Allendale agrees with the yield decline but suggests further declines will be posted in future months. The 27th annual Allendale Nationwide Producer Yield Survey suggested 172.6.

With almost no change to the old crop picture, and only a moderate decline for new crop production, ending stocks were lowered only slightly, from 2.409 billion last month to now 2.384. USDA’s numbers would make a stocks to use measurement of 16.5%, the largest since the 2005/06 crop year’s 17.5%.

World Numbers: New crop corn production was lowered by 1.8 million tonnes. Ending stocks were lowered from 220.8 mt to now 219.5. Last year the world numbers were 209.3.

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