November 30, 2015

USDA Cattle on Feed & Cold Storage Estimates 11-17-15

November 17th, 2015

For Immediate Release

November 17, 2015

October Placements are expected to be 5.9% smaller than last year at 2.228 million head. This is the second smallest October placement since the current data-series started in 1996. USDA’s cattle feeding margin suggests a $515 per head loss on outgoing cattle ($174 breakevens vs. $133 sales). This would be eleven months in a row of losses. Live cattle rose from $121 at the start of the month up to $138 at the end. Corn averaged $3.76 in Western Kansas in October ($3.73 in September, $3.52 in October 2014). October placements supply the March through August slaughter period.

Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 3.3% lower than October 2014. 2015 had one less weekday and one more Saturday than 2014. Our 1.629 million head estimate is the smallest October figure in the current data-series back to 1996.

Total Cattle on Feed as of November 1 is 1.8% larger than last year. That is a decline from the October 1 total of +2.3%.

Allendale projects a 660 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of October. The five-year average is 534 million lbs. Our estimate represents an increase of 3 million lb. from the previous month. This is just over the five-year average month to month change for October of a 1 million lb. increase. Beef stocks, at 509 million lbs., are above the five-year average of 417. This represents an increase of 13 million lb. from the previous month. The five-year average change is a 1 million lb. increase.

USDA Cattle on Feed Report, Released 11/20/2015 at 2:00 PM CST
Allendale Estimate
On Feed Nov 1 101.8
Placements 94.1
Marketings 96.7


USDA Cold Storage Released 11/23/2015 at 2:00 PM CST
Last Year Last Month Allendale Estimate
Pork Stocks Oct 31 533.076 656.376 659.628
Beef Stocks 380.928 496.371 509.484

Cold Storage stocks are estimated – in million pounds while Cattle on Feed is estimated as a percentage compared to last year. If you have any questions, please call Rich Nelson, Chief Strategist at 800-262-7538 or email


Skip to toolbar