December 21, 2014

December ’14 Cattle on Feed

December 16th, 2014

Results from the 12/19/2014 Cattle on Feed Report

 Average Estimate USDA Actual
On Feed Dec 1 101.1 101
Placements 96.2 96
Marketings 90.1 89

Original Post:

November Placements are expected to be 3.8% lower than last year at 1.796 million head. This would be the smallest November placement in 10 years. USDA’s cattle feeding margin ended the month with a $64 per head profit on outgoing cattle (14 months in a row). Corn averaged $3.77 in Western Kansas in November ($3.52 in October, $4.32 in November 2013). November placements supply the April through August slaughter period.

Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 6.3% lower than November 2013. There was no calendar day adjustment for this month. Our 1.555 million head estimate is the smallest November marketing in 11 years.

Total Cattle on Feed as of December 1 is 0.7% over last year. That is an increase over the November 1 total of 0.5% over last year.

Allendale projects a 506 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of November. The five year average is 510 million lbs. Our estimate represents a decrease of 18 million lb. from the previous month. The five year average month to month change for November is a 20 million lb. decrease. Beef stocks, at 383 million lbs., are below the five year average of 440. This month’s number represents an 8 million lb. increase from the previous month. The five year average change is a 15 million lb. increase.

USDA Cattle On Feed Report for release on 12/19/2014 @ 2:00 PM

Allendale
On Feed Dec 1 100.7
Placements 96.2
Marketings 93.7
Cold Storage Due for Release on 12/22/2014 at 2:00 PM
Last Year Last Month Allendale
Pork Stocks Nov 30 546.238 524.769 506.524
Beef Stocks 450.758 374.868 383.040

Cold Storage stocks are estimated – in million pounds while Cattle on Feed is estimated as a percentage compared to last year. If you have any questions, please call Rich Nelson, Chief Strategist at 800-262-7538 or email rnelson@allendale-inc.com

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