July 24, 2014

July ’14 Cattle on Feed & Cold Storage Reports

July 21st, 2014

Update:

The USDA reported pork stocks of 537.7 lbs, and beef stocks of 357.8 lbs. View the livestock commentary for analysis of the July 22nd Cold Storage report.

Original Post:

June Placements are expected to be 7.2% lower than last year. USDA’s cattle feeding margin ended the month with $174 per head profits on outgoing cattle (nine months in a row). While feedlots are still bullish for live cattle prices they are seeing tightening feeder supplies and pricing to be a challenge. Corn averaged $4.68 in Western Kansas in June ($4.97 in May, $7.17 in June 2013). June placements help supply the November through February slaughter period.

Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 0.4% higher than June 2013. There was a one more weekday and one less Saturday in June of 2014 which skewed numbers higher.

Total Cattle on Feed as of July 1 now totals 2.8% under last year.

Allendale projects a 541 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of June. The five year average is 529 million lbs. for the end of June. Our estimate represents a decrease of 34 million lb. from the previous month. The five year average month to month change for June is a 46 million lb. decrease. Beef stocks, at 372 million lbs., are below the five year average of 438. This month’s number represents a 7 million lb. drawdown from the previous month. The five year average change is a 3 million lb. decrease.

USDA Cattle On Feed Report for release on 7/25/2014 @ 2:00

                                ALLENDALE

On Feed July 1                  97.2            

Placements                      92.8

Marketings                      100.4

 

USDA Cold Storage Report for release on 7/22/2014 @ 2:00

                          Last     Last     ALLENDALE

                          Year     Month

Pork Stocks June 30       565.063  575.246  541.031

Beef Stocks               481.250  378.899  372.116

Cold Storage stocks are estimated – in million pounds while Cattle on Feed is estimated as a percentage compared to last year.

If you have any questions, please call Rich Nelson, Chief Strategist at 800-262-7538 or E-mail rnelson@allendale-inc.com     www.allendale-inc.com

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