May 23, 2015

May 2015 Cattle on Feed & Cold Storage

May 19th, 2015

05/22/2015

USDA Cattle On Feed Report released on 05/22/2015 @ 2:00 PM

Estimate USDA 05/2015
On Feed May 1 101.0 101.0%
Placements 102.6 95.0%
Marketings 92.0 92.0%

USDA Cold Storage Report released on 05/22/2015 @ 2:00 PM

Last Year Last Month Estimate USDA 05/2015
Pork Stocks 04/30 583.891 668.559 681.772 699.606
Beef Stocks 402.281 479.784 472.996  476.702

Cold Storage stocks are estimated – in million pounds while Cattle on Feed is estimated as a percentage compared to last year. If you have any questions, please call Rich Nelson, Chief Strategist at 800-262-7538 or email rnelson@allendale-inc.com

Original Post

April Placements are expected to be 2.6% higher than last year at 1.679 million head. This is just over the five year average for April of 1.641. USDA’s cattle feeding margin ended the month with a $169 per head loss on outgoing cattle. This would be five months in a row of losses. Corn averaged $3.80 in Western Kansas in April ($3.90 in March, $5.02 in April 2014). April placements supply the September through November slaughter period.

Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 8.0% lower than April 2014. There was no calendar adjustment this month. Our 1.636 million head estimate is the smallest April marketing since the current data-series started in 1996.

Total Cattle on Feed as of May 1 is 1.0% higher than last year. That is an increase from the April 1 total that was equal with last year.

Allendale projects a 682 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of April. The five year average is 596 million lbs. Our estimate represents an increase of 13 million lbs. from the previous month. This is just over the five year average month to month change for April of an 11 million lb. increase. Beef stocks, at 473 million lbs., are above the five year average of 449. This month’s number represents a decrease of 7 million lb. from the previous month. The five year average change is a 1 million lb. decrease.

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