July 31, 2014

July ’14 Cattle on Feed & Cold Storage Reports

July 21st, 2014

Update:

The USDA reported pork stocks of 537.7 lbs, and beef stocks of 357.8 lbs.

On July 25th, the USDA also reported Cattle on Feed of 97.6, Placements of 93.8, Marketings of 98.2.

Original Post:

June Placements are expected to be 7.2% lower than last year. USDA’s cattle feeding margin ended the month with $174 per head profits on outgoing cattle (nine months in a row). While feedlots are still bullish for live cattle prices they are seeing tightening feeder supplies and pricing to be a challenge. Corn averaged $4.68 in Western Kansas in June ($4.97 in May, $7.17 in June 2013). June placements help supply the November through February slaughter period.

Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 0.4% higher than June 2013. There was a one more weekday and one less Saturday in June of 2014 which skewed numbers higher.

Total Cattle on Feed as of July 1 now totals 2.8% under last year.

Allendale projects a 541 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of June. The five year average is 529 million lbs. for the end of June. Our estimate represents a decrease of 34 million lb. from the previous month. The five year average month to month change for June is a 46 million lb. decrease. Beef stocks, at 372 million lbs., are below the five year average of 438. This month’s number represents a 7 million lb. drawdown from the previous month. The five year average change is a 3 million lb. decrease.

USDA Cattle On Feed Report for release on 7/25/2014 @ 2:00

                                ALLENDALE

On Feed July 1                  97.2            

Placements                      92.8

Marketings                      100.4

 

USDA Cold Storage Report for release on 7/22/2014 @ 2:00

                          Last     Last     ALLENDALE

                          Year     Month

Pork Stocks June 30       565.063  575.246  541.031

Beef Stocks               481.250  378.899  372.116

Cold Storage stocks are estimated – in million pounds while Cattle on Feed is estimated as a percentage compared to last year.

If you have any questions, please call Rich Nelson, Chief Strategist at 800-262-7538 or E-mail rnelson@allendale-inc.com     www.allendale-inc.com

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