July 20, 2017

Weekly Export Sales 6-22-2017

June 22nd, 2017

Weekly export sales from USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service branch were released this morning. They cover sales from June 8 - 15. Corn export sales during this period totaled 652,825 metric tonnes (528,825 old crop). That was within the 650,000 - 1,050,000 trade expectation. USDA's whole-year goal for old crop export is 2.225 billion bushels. To have those exports you need sales of 2.245 billion. Current year to date sales come to 2.171 billion. That leaves the June 15 - August 31 sales goal of an additional 74 million bushels. That is reasonable as the last three years of normal South American crops saw remaining US sales of 65 million. We will meet USDA's current corn export goal.

Soybean export sales during this period totaled 114,948 metric tonnes (111,182 old crop). This was under the 350,000 - 750,000 trade expectation. USDA's whole-year goal for exports is 2.050 billion. To export that amount you need 2.086 billion in sales (we don't ship everything sold). Through June 15 we have sales of 2.170 billion on the books. Yes, we are already 84 million bushels over their whole-year hopes. In the past three years of normal South American crops we had an additional US sale of 12 million bushels through August 31. USDA is holding from jumping old crop exports sales in a big way due to their fear of big cancellations. There are 249 million bushels of unshipped old crop at this time. USDA will certainly have to jump old crop sales, likely 40 - 80 million bushels. Don't be surprised to see that offset by a drop in new crop though.

New crop export sales on the books are very poor at 126 million bushels. This is now the worst new crop procurement by this point in time in eleven years. The trade is talking of a potential cut to USDA's new crop from 50 - 150 million bushels. The fear is that Brazil's problems will push into our new crop year.

Wheat export sales came to 542,881 metric tonnes (all current crop). This was over the trade's 300,000 - 500,000 expectation. This is the third week of the new crop year so it is far too early to get excited about strong or weak sales. Our year to date sales come to 276 million bushels. That is over the 257 five year average by this point. USDA will keep their export sales estimate unchanged.

Weekly beef exports sales were reported at 16,647 metric tonnes. That is the best sale in eight weeks. Essentially, export sales were pretty poor in the previous six weeks. They averaged 28% under last year. Today's number is 3% over last year's sale in the same week. It is good to see but bulls would like to see this continue. Year to date weekly beef export sales are running 12% over last year.

Weekly pork sales were good at 24,731 16,647 metric tonnes. That is the best sale in nine weeks. Being clear, sales have been pretty good for the past five weeks. They ran 22% over last year during this time. Today's number is 28% over last year in the same week. Export sales are a supportive factor for pork. Year to date weekly pork export sales are running 6% over last year.

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