May 25, 2017

NOPA Crush 5-15-2017

May 15th, 2017

Only 139.134 million bushels were crushed in April. That was below the already low expectation of 145.7.

Crush has run below last year for three months in a row now (Feb -2.3%, Mar -2.3%, Apr -5.7%). Year to date crush has fallen to 0.8% over last year. To hit USDA’s whole-year goal of 1.925 billion bushels, itself 2.1% over last year, we now have to see the May – August crush run 4.6% over last year.

It may be hard to hit that strong May – August pace that is needed. Two of those four remaining months were records last year for their respective months.

Plugging in a hoped for 1.8% higher growth the remainder of the marketing year would mean crush needs to be lowered by 18 million bushels.

 

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