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February 9th, 2017
Again, we will point out today's sales report was good through last Thursday the 2nd. China was on the holiday week at the time. Sales during this time came to 665,634 metric tonnes (536,294 old + 129,340 new). This was neutral as it was within the 600,000 - 1,050,000 trade expectation. At first glance you would be excited about soybean exports when looking at the year to date pace. We have sold 91% of USDA's whole-year goal by this point of 2.050 billion bushels. That is over the 88% five year average normally done by this time. This is why there are some analysts calling for USDA to raise their estimate.
However, you need to look a little deeper at the numbers. Remember how last year had big unnatural second half of the marketing year sales due to the Argentine weather problem? That made last year's number only 81% (big later-year sales changed the percentage sold by this week). Last year was an anomaly. The three previous years with a more normal marketing pattern all had 93%, 96%, and 94% of USDA's goal met by this point. We should be comparing this year's 91% number with those specific normal years.
Last year had excess bean sales due to the ARG problem. That won’t happen this time.
Filed under Export Sales, Nelson's Notes | Comments Off on Weekly Export Sales 2-9-2017