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March 23rd, 2017
Covering the period from March 9 - 16, they report combined corn sales at 1,474,128 tonnes (1,347,016 old crop). This was within the 1,000,000 - 1,500,000 trade expectation. We have sold 83% of USDA's whole-year expectation. That seems bullish as we are over the five year average pace of 79% by this week. However, the sales pace in that five year average is distorted by two South American crop problems. The three normal SA crop years saw 81%, 82%, and 82% by this week. Compared with those years we are slightly ahead. USDA may not raise corn exports on the April supply/demand report but perhaps later on this will need to.
Soybean export sales of 818,071 metric tonnes were noted for the period ended last Thursday (738,169 old crop). That was within the 450,000 - 850,000 trade expectation. We have sold 98% of USDA's whole-year goal. That seems pretty bullish as we are ahead of the five year average by this point of 83%. That five year average is distorted by two SA crop problem years though. Excluding those from the group, we are compared with the three normal years that had 97%, 100%, and 98% of USDA's goal met by this point. We see no reason for USDA to change their current estimate on the April supply/demand report.
USDA's current old crop soybean export goal is for exports at 2.025 billion bushels this year. To hit that shipment goal we need to sell 2.061 as we normally don't ship out 36 million bushels in sales each year. Year to date we have sold 1.991 billion. To hit the goal we only need to sell 70 million bushels from March 16 - August 31. We won't hit last year's large late year sales, 335 million bushels, but certainly should beat the past three years of normal sales. In those most recent three years we sold 80 million, 52, million, and 58 million from now through August. We should meet USDA's goal at a minimum. Perhaps in a couple months USDA may need to raise their estimate.
Wheat export sales ran 568,267 metric tonnes (418,477 old crop). The trade expectation was 300,000 - 700,000. Though today's number was within the trade expectation, we still suspect USDA's current 1.025 billion bushel estimate is a little too high. We have sold 93% of USDA's whole-year goal. That is under the five year average pace by this point of 97%. The wheat marketing year ends on May 31. There is not a lot of time left to fix our small discrepancy.Export Sales, Nelson's Notes | Comments Off on Weekly Export Sales 3-23-2017