July 20, 2017

Weekly Export Sales 7-20-2017

July 20th, 2017

US: Weekly export sales from USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service branch were released this morning. They covered sales made from Friday the 7th through Thursday the 13th. Combined corn sales were noted at 678,559 metric tonnes (466,489 old + 212,070 new). This was within the 350,000 - 750,000 tonne trade estimate and therefore neutral. We do have to say the old crop sale, though expected, was the best in six weeks. USDA's whole-year old crop export goal is 2.225 billion bushels. To ship that amount we need sales of 2.245 billion, not all sales are shipped. Through the 13th we have sold 2.214 billion. Our assumption of  another 30 million bushels in remaining sales puts our current estimate at 2.244. Old crop corn will meet USDA's hopes.

US: As it stands right now, we have only sold 138 million bushels of new crop corn. That is the lowest amount in seven years that ranged from 152 - 315.

US: Of note, we are nearing the end of the old crop marketing year for both corn and soybeans (August 31). There are only seven weeks left.  In a couple weeks we will begin discussing things from a weekly shipment standpoint rather than our focus on sales. Much of the trade incorrectly focuses on shipments through the entire year rather than the final weeks. We report sales as this is the new information. Shipments are simply already known sales made a few weeks ago.

US: Weekly soybean export sales of 1.932 million tonnes were noted (409,558 old + 1,522,548 new). That was within the 1.4 - 2.1 million tonne trade expectation and therefore neutral. This old crop sale was the best in seven weeks. USDA's whole-year export goal is 2.100 billion bushels. To ship that amount out we need sales of 2.136 billion. So far, we have sold 2.218. Of that, 247 million has not yet been shipped out, the second highest ever. Much of the US trade is concerned that we won't ship all of that product out. We estimate about 40 million won't be shipped. We are still going to beat USDA's current old crop soybean export guess.

US: New crop soybean sales are a concern. We have only sold 202 million bushels of product. That is the lowest sold by now in 10 years (216 - 541). We can't argue with the idea that new crop sales may need to be lowered due to Brazilian competition concern.

US: Wheat export sales ran 669,520 metric tonnes (all current crop). Total wheat export sales come to 295 million bushels. That is the best booking in week #4 of the wheat marketing year in four years. It is too early in the marketing year to be getting excited about being above or below the pace to hit USDA. For now, we are doing just fine.

 

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