October 4, 2015

Lean Hog Commentary

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Posted 10/02/2015

Hurricane Joaquin may no longer hit the US. The latest forecast models suggest it will move Northeast from the Bahamas. That takes a lot of risk off the table. For this particular storm, as of this morning it was supposed to hit the Southeast US and weaken sharply past the midpoint on the East Coast (missing the main US population). For the hog side this may have been important to monitor as it would have hit five Southeast US plants (including the nation's largest down at Tar Heel). There is no longer that risk.

On a seasonal basis October futures typically have a very slight decline into their October 14 expiration. During this time the December contract generally trades mixed. After mid-October the December contract typically has a sharp week and a half long fall. Our downside targets are $65 and $60.

Working Trade:

  • (8/28) Sold October 62 hog put 1.20, risk at 1.50, objective 0. Closed 0.02.

There is a risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts.

More On-the-Go | Corn | Soybeans | Wheat | Live Cattle | Lean Hogs |

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