June 19, 2018

March 2017 USDA WASDE Report

Report Summary:

US Ending Stocks (16/17 in million bushels)
USDA Feb 17 Avg Estimate USDA March 17
Corn 2,320 2,317 2,320
Soybeans 420 418 435
Wheat 1,139 1,135 1,129

Full Report Details

Each month USDA updates various estimates of supply and demand and revises its moving target for where stocks will end at the end of the marketing year, August 31 for corn and soybeans and May 31 for wheat. The March WASDE typically holds only moderate changes to old crop US demand and ending stocks. It is also notable as it contains updates for South American production.

The big USDA numbers are still in front of us. On March 31 they release the results of their farmer acreage survey, Prospective Plantings. They also release the very important separate report, quarterly Grain Stocks. The Grain Stocks report will help analysts fill in the blanks on the unknown Feed/Residual category of corn use.

Mar17-WASDE-US-World-cornCorn: Analysts were not expecting any real changes for today’s report. The trade estimate was for an insignificant drop from last month’s 2.320 billion ending stock to 2.317. USDA left it unchanged at 2.320. That was made after a 50 million drop to feed/residual and a 50 million increase for corn for ethanol. We have no problem with those changes and would suggest the exact same will come next month again.

World Numbers: USDA raised the world ending stocks from 217.6 million tonnes last month to 220.7. They were a little more active than we expected today. Production increases were noted for Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa totaling 6.6 million tonnes. This will be seen as moderately bearish.

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