October 31, 2014

June USDA Grain Stocks & Planted Acreage Reports

 

Quarterly Stocks
March USDA Avg Estimate June USDA
Corn 7.006 3.722 3.854
Soybeans .992 .378 .405
Wheat 1.056 .598 .590
Planted Acreage
Corn 91.691 91.725 91.6
Soybeans 81.493 82.154 84.8
Wheat 55.815 55.818 56.5

Reports Recap and Analysis:

Every quarter USDA surveys holders of grain. USDA uses this survey to help them fine tune their estimates of year-end ending stocks (August 30). This report also helps the trade determine feed use in the previous quarter. Also out today was the Acreage report. This survey of producers comes after the bulk of planting is complete. There will be further updates to acreage as the year progresses.

 

Corn:

June 1 Grain Stocks: USDA found 3.854 billion bushels of corn at the end of the third quarter of the marketing year. This was a bit over the trade guess of 3.722. This implied that the unknown category of usage, corn for feed, was just a little less than expected. USDA may be resistant to lowering its ending stock number on next month’s supply/demand report.

 

Acreage: The second farmer survey of the year found 91.641 acres planted. This was a small 50,000 acre reduction from their March effort. The trade was expecting a moderate 661,000 increase. This acreage number will not be traded as being bullish. As long as we have these great growing conditions, new crop will still be considered bearish. The key yield setting time of the year, pollination, is just around the corner. There are no weather threats for this process at this time.

Soybeans:

June 1 Grain Stocks: 405 million bushels were left over from the fall harvest. This was a little larger than the 378 average guess. This implies the remaining June – August period will not be as tight as feared. For everyone’s focus, the August 30 ending stock number, USDA may not be interested in lowering it much further on next month’s supply/demand report.

Acreage: The 84.839 million acre survey from USDA was a shocker. It represents a steep 3.3 million acre increase over the March number. For those keeping count, this is now a huge 8.3 million acre increase over last year! This tells the trade, in clear language, that we are set for a dramatic change in supply from the current tight situation. In the big picture we really shouldn’t be surprised by this number. You may remember Allendale’s assertion back on the March report that USDA’s total acreage numbers were off. Back then USDA implied only a 1 million acre increase for combined corn, soybeans, and wheat acres over last year. That did not make sense as preventive plant and the inflow from lower CRP acres gave us potentially over 8 million more acres for this year. With today’s Acreage report in hand, the total acreage increase of 4.9 million this year is much more reasonable. Bottom line here is that new crop soybeans can now be considered bearish, just like corn.

Wheat:

June 1 Grain Stocks: Wheat is unique as its marketing year ends on May 31. Today’s Grain Stock number therefore represents the final ending stock number for wheat. USDA was estimating 593 million bushels left over on the most recent supply/demand report. Today’s number, at 590, does not change the old crop picture.

Acreage: The trade was expecting spring wheat acres to decline a little from USDA’s March survey estimate of 12.009 million. Instead, the survey suggested an increase to 12.709. That is quite an increase for this small crop. Helping to balance that increase out a little was a large 330,000 acre decrease out of durum. It now totals 1.469 million. Along with an increase for their estimate of last fall’s winter wheat planting the all-wheat acreage number increased by 659,000 from March. Wheat is mostly taking its cues from corn right now and this adds a little to the negative sentiment.

Original Post and Estimates:

In each of the past five late planted years corn acres increased on the June Acreage report. Other factors, more than planting pace, determine June acreage.

From March 1 to May 15 the potential corn revenue per acre increased by $15. During the time the potential soybean revenue increased by $22 per acre.

Corn planted acres are expected to increase 385,000 from USDA’s March Prospective Plantings survey. This is the fourth largest acreage in modern times.

Soybean acres are expected to increase by 1.711 million acres. This is a record soybean planting.

Wheat acres are seen 194,000 lower than the March survey. A reduction in spring wheat, of 151,000 acres, was responsible for most of the change. This is the second lowest acreage in 40 years.

Allendale recorded a webinar and discussed these findings in full detail. View the webinar here.

 

Quarterly Stocks & Prospective Plantings due on 06/30/14

                                                                

Prospective Plantings in million acres

                   March

                USDA 2014            Allendale

Corn              91.696               92.081

Soybeans          81.493               83.204

All Wheat         55.815               55.621

Winter Wheat      42.007               41.961

   Hard Red       30.200               30.183

   Soft Red       8.430                8.456

   White          3.350                3.322

Durum             1.799                1.802

Other Spring      12.009               11.858

   Hard Red       11.300               11.156

   White          .709                 .702

 

Quarterly Grain Stocks in billion bushels

          06/13   03/14      Allendale

Corn      2.766   7.006        3.646

Beans     .435    0.992        .344

Wheat     .718    1.056        .593


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