September 17, 2014

 narrow-An-3-5-3w

Below is a summary of the January 10th USDA Crop Production, Grain Stocks, Supply & Demand, and Winter Wheat Seedings reports are below. Keep watching this page for reaction to the reports shortly after the numbers are released.

 Plus, don’t miss our 2014 grain outlooks, price projections, and trade strategies later this month

U.S. Grain Ending Stocks (billion bushels)
  USDA 2012/13 USDA Dec 13/14 Avg Jan Estimate USDA Jan 13/14
Corn .824 1.792  1.861 1.631
Soybeans .141 .150  .149 .150
Wheat .718 .575  .557 .608
     
U.S. Crop Production
  USDA 2012/13 USDA Dec 2013 Avg Jan Estimate USDA Jan 2014
Corn  10.780 13.989 14.066 13.925
Soybeans  3.034  3.258  3.279 3.289
     
U.S. Yield
Corn  123.38 160.36  161.2 158.8
Soybeans  39.83 43.04  43.3 43.3
     
Quarterly Grain Stocks (December 1st)
    USDA 12/1/2012 Avg Jan Estimate  USDA Jan 2014
 Corn    8.003 10.790  10.426
 Soybeans    1.966 2.161 2.148
 Wheat    1.671  1.400 1.463
     
Winter Wheat Seedings (million acres)
     USDA 2012/13  Avg Jan Estimate USDA Jan 2014
 All Winter    43.090  43.501 41.892
 Hard Red    29.571  30.426  ???
 Soft Red    10.019  9.539  ???
 White    3.500  3.533  ???
     
World Ending Stocks (million tonnes)
     USDA 2012/13 USDA DEC 13/14  USDA Jan 13/14
 Corn    134.90 162.46 160.23
 Soybeans    60.18  70.62 72.33
 Wheat    175.83  182.78  185.40
     
*Source: USDA Data Released 01/10/2014    

Previous post, including Allendale Estimates:

On Friday, January 10th the USDA will release four major reports: Crop Production, Quarterly Grain Stocks,  Supply and Demand, and Winter Wheat Seedings. These reports will be released at 11AM Central Time. Here are Allendale’s thoughts and estimates for each report. Check back with us on Friday after the reports for results and reactions.

What influence will these reports have on our yearly price outlooks and strategies heading into planting? Register for the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference to find out.

Corn – Stocks build due to production increases and feed/use and ethanol decreases. Argentina corn is lowered 1 mt to 25 mt. Brazil is lowered 0.5 mt to 69.5 mt.

Soybeans – US exports are increased. Argentina is increased by 0.5 mt to 55. Brazil is increased by 1 to 89 mt.

Wheat – Winter wheat plantings will increase 1.5 million. Spring wheat will also see an acreage on the March report. McHenry, IL, Friday, January 3, 2014

narrow-An-3-5-3w

These USDA reports are scheduled for release on 1/10/14

ANNUAL PRODUCTION           USDA               USDA-Dec         ALDL         Actual    
million bushels            12/13                  13/14        13/14       01/10/13
Corn                       10780                  13989        14083
Soybeans                    3034                   3258         3251
 
YIELDS                      USDA               USDA-Dec         ALDL         Actual    
per bushel                 12/13                  13/14        13/14       01/10/13
Corn                      123.38                 160.36       161.44
Soybeans                   39.83                  43.04        42.95
 
US ENDING STOCKS            USDA               USDA-Dec         ALDL         Actual
million bushels            12/13                  13/14        13/14       01/10/13
US Corn                      824                   1792         1902
US Beans                     141                    150          132
US Wheat                     718                    575          559
 
WORLD ENDING STOCKS         USDA               USDA-Dec         ALDL         Actual
million tonnes             12/13                  13/14        13/14       01/10/13
World Corn                134.90                 162.46       163.77
World Soybeans             60.18                  70.62        71.96
World Wheat               175.83                 182.78       181.56
 
QTRLY GRAIN STOCKS          USDA               USDA-Sep         ALDL         Actual
million bushels      Dec 1, 2012            Sep 1, 2013  Dec 1, 2013       01/10/13
Corn                        8003                    824        10900        
Beans                       1966                    141         2171
Wheat                       1671                   1855         1306        
 
WINTER WHEAT SEEDINGS       USDA               USDA-Dec         ALDL         Actual
million acres              12/13                  13/14        13/14       01/10/13
All Winter                43.090                              44.593           
HRW                       29.571                              30.517         
SRW                       10.019                              10.400         
White                      3.500                               3.676