September 19, 2014

Headlines Will Add Excitement This Week

August 18th, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary at 5:30 am.

Grain futures are mixed with row crops higher and wheat lower.

Traders Focus Today: Crop tour by news media and industry participants.

ProFarmer will be starting their annual Midwest crop tour today and give the final results on Friday. The tour will be covered on social media and by newswire reporters. Expect trade to have volatility based on their pictures and findings.

Allendale 25th Annual Yield Survey starts today. We gather your farms information over the next 2 weeks and release the findings on September 4th.

Update – Morning Coffee Commentary:

Weather forecasts will be watched closely as long-term forecast reach into early frost date potential.

Weather forecasts start the week with near normal temps for the next 10 days (except for Dakotas/NW MN), the 80% Midwest coverage of precipitation over the next 5 days will keep the production outlook for a record crop.

Stay updated on weather by reading and/or listening to Allendale’s Meteorologist Ryan Martin.

Crop conditions this afternoon are expected to be steady with last week.

Stats Canada will update their 2014 production on Thursday.

Friday’s higher than expected NOPA crush for July suggests USDA may be understating 2013/14 US total soybean crush by 10 million bushel which may be the reason for the sharp increase in immediate delivery soybeans.

Ukraine and South American corn is priced at a discount to US due to last week’s price rally.

The situation in Ukraine intensifies after Ukraine said it destroyed Russian military vehicles that crossed the border into Ukraine.

Economic calendar has housing starts on Tuesday and existing home sales on Thursday.  Traders will be watching for any change in Fed policy when Fed Chairman Janet Yellen speaks this Friday at the Kansas City Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole.

The near-term technical picture for cattle appears to be suggesting a top is in place. However, the long-term continuous chart still shows live cattle in a bullish up-trend. Beef values were lower on Friday with choice down 1.20 and select down .19. It would appear cash cattle this week would be steady to lower. The CME Feeder Index is 222.21.

Lean hog futures as well as cash markets are being pressured due to supply impact from heavy weight hogs, high prices at the retail counter and competition from poultry. Pork cutout values were down 4.39 on Friday.

Markets as of 5:30 AM CDT

Dec Corn    +3 3/4
Nov Beans   +2 1/2
Sep Wheat   -4 1/4
Oct CattleSteady-Lower
Oct HogsSteady-Lower
Sep Dlr     +.01
Sep S&P     +9.00
Sep Crude   -1.07
Oct Gold    -2.70
 
Chart of the Day

daily chart

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