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This morning was it for the cold air. Temps this morning pushed into the upper 20s for one more time. This was the coldest air of the week in some spots, not quite as cold as 24 hours prior in others. The key is, though, that it is the last push of cold air from this outbreak, and we should see a couple of days of slightly warmer air coming in. We need to emphasize “slightly”, as we still think we see overall below normal temps in through the first half of May. But…you won’t hear quite as much complaining about bitter cold as what we have been through recently. Rains are on track for the weekend, pushing into the western Corn Belt today and tonight, and moving across the rest of the region tomorrow. We hold firm with our rain totals of half to 1.5” rains over 70% of the Corn Belt. MN and WI will get missed. All action should be done by Sunday. Dry weather holds through Monday. Models continue to go drier for next week. While we think there is something that is being missed through the week next week by the models, rather than sit here and argue in the face of consistent model runs the other way, we begrudgingly will look for a drier move next week as well. Now, it will not be all roses…we definitely see cooler air in play, especially the last part of the week. Also, as a strong low moves across the Deep South, we still like an opportunity for that moisture to shoot farther north into the Corn Belt. But, even if moisture does shoot north, the coverage will not be spectacular…and that is the takeaway here. The amount of the Corn Belt that can get significant moisture next week is under 50%, and moisture totals will be under .25”. So…there ma be some better windows of opportunity next week. But, we also like cooler, cloudier and windier conditions than what is being painted by some outlets. Like we said…it will not be all roses…but there can be some work next week. May starts off with scattered shower and thunderstorm action with a wave moving into the NW belt around the 1st-2nd, but that will have coverage limited to 40%. A stronger front is on the models for the 4th-5th time frame, and a much bigger system for the 9th-10th.
Three strong lows are projected to move over the Deep South and Lower Delta in the next 15 days…one today through the weekend, one Tuesday through Thursday and one for the 7th-10th. Each of these passages will bring 1-2 inch rain potential, so there still will be overall wet conditions in the south. However, temps work to near normal levels and we should be able to see some dry down in-between. It adds up to more talk of slow field work, but the rains will not be constant.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms in HRW areas over the next 4 days will have a general coverage of 50%. There will be rain around, but we assuredly will be talking about who is disappointed in the rains come next Tuesday. Totals can be from .25” up to 2.5”. Behind the lows that promote these short term rains we see mostly dry air for next week with the next good front not moving in until the 4th-7th time frame. That system can bring half to 2 inch rains. In between, we should see good potential for field work in all HRW areas.
SRW areas see good rains this weekend, and then most of the moisture will be in far south SRW areas for next week. This weekend look for half to 1.5” rain totals, most of them in the half to three quarter inch range, with coverage at 80% of SRW areas. Next week some heavier rains can move over southern SRW areas, mostly in the lower delta up to the MO boot heel. Northern SRW areas will be seeing only limited, scattered action next week. A system in early may brings scattered moisture, and then a stronger front fro the 4th-5th and for the 9th-10th continues to project in over all SRW areas.Filed under Weather | Comment (0)